Thursday, September 29, 2016

The Alternative Reality Election.

          We are still waiting to get a full picture of what the polls are telling us about who won the debate and more importantly the debate’s impact on the election. What we are seeing without question is a shameless attempt to continue the creation of alternative realities whenever and wherever possible. It is exceptionally important that we focus on the pernicious potential of such creations rather than merely debunking them.  

      Unsurprisingly, Donald Trump wants to claim/believe he won the debate. In so claiming, he relies on click button online samples.  Mostly for entertainment value, but also for page clicks, many websites launched who won the debate questions?  Click a button and you voted. They don’t ask for demographic samples.  They often don’t have a security measure to prevent multiple votes from being cast. They are all basically worthless for gauging public opinion. This is understood by a great many people to simply be true. But as we have seen time and time again, something which was understood not to be true before Trump says it becomes true to his partisans in very short order after he says it. 

 This is not, as it might seem, a harmless phenomenon.   If people begin to base their belief about how the election is going on the results of these online polls, then they become much less likely ultimately to believe election results that prove considerably different.  In a country where both candidates seem like a certain lock for 40% of the vote and probably higher, it is not difficult for the opposing sides to be in such silos that people don’t really know people supporting the other candidate.    Thus this creation of alternative reality based on blatantly flawed polls can cause serious problems.  Democracy only works when the side that loses believes the outcome and accepts it. The creation of an alternative reality following a debate does raise the specter of creating a similar alternative reality around the election itself. This is a risk we should be watching for carefully as the election continues. 
Share:

0 comments:

Post a Comment

The Scorecard

The Scorecard

The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

Our Delegate Math


Delegate Count


Delegate Contests

About Me

Delegate Count

Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.