This week brings a closer race. Last week Clinton led by 6.1% in the RCP
average. This week that number has
dropped to 4%. Clinton now leads 46.1% to
42.1% down from 48.4% to 42.3%. The
Four-Way margin has shrunk from 4.4% to 3.4%, going from 42.5% to 38.1% to 41.3% to 37.9%. What is striking about all of these
numbers is that with the election getting closer voters seem to still be
leaving both major candidates. No one
seems to be getting any happier with Trump, but Clinton seems to be taking a
hit from Trump being nothing but a piñata.
Whether this trend continues next week remains to be seen. One
interesting thing to note is the now clear difference between the internet
polls, which are something closer to tied, while the traditional phone polls
still show Clinton with a bigger lead. Given the holiday week, we are better
off waiting than making the assumption that the race is truly closer and will remain
that way headed into the fall. But for
this week, it is closer.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
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About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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