This is our first look at a state that seems to
be moving away from being stuck on even to one where the edge for one candidate
over the other has grown enough to support the premise that Donald Trump leads
in Ohio. This is not to say that Hillary Clinton cannot come back and win the
state. But what is more certain this
year is that if she wins the state it will more likely be as part of rout than the
lynchpin of her victory. Ohio was the key
state in 2004, but it was not the key state in 2008 or 2012. It appeared to be
crucial in both elections because it was ready to be called first, thus
providing the electoral voters earlier in the night to end the suspense (quite
famously with the Rove meltdown in 2012.) But it was not the closest state which Obama
needed to win the White House either time.
Sure it is close. Obama won it by 3 points in 2012, while Kerry lost it
by 2 points. Obama won by 166,000 votes, Kerry lost by 116,000 votes. But the evidence so far suggests Trump has an
edge, which we will soon explain.
To
grasp Ohio is to break it up into Five Regions (Eastern Ohio, Greater Cuyahoga (Cleveland)
Greater Franklin(Columbus)
Northwest and Southwest. ) Only by
getting a sense of each region does one have a real sense of how this race will
go. (which counties are in which region
will appear below)
Eastern Ohio is functioning much in the same way
as similarly situated Western Pennsylvania. In counties such as Monroe and Jefferson Obama
did much worse than Kerry. It seems likely that this bleeding will continue,
Eastern Ohio was also the region where Trump pretty well crushed Kasich in the
primary losing, with Kasich only winning two counties there. Obama won by slightly less than Kerry did.
What makes it a region Democrats win (Obama won the region by about 25,000
votes) is that it includes such Democratic strongholds as Athens (Ohio University) Ashtabula (Jefferson) Mahoning (Youngstown) and Trumbull( Warren).
However all of these places seem likely to see a decrease in the Democratic
margin from 2012, and the region as a whole is likely to go for Trump. By just
how much remains a question. Losing it by less than 25,000 votes keeps
Democrats in the game. Larger than
50,000 and HRC is in big Trouble.
Greater Cuyahoga is where Democrats live and
breathe, but even here problems exist. Unlike in the rest of the country where
the Hispanic population is exploding and making regions more Democratic, we do
not see this much in Ohio, which is mostly a Black and white state. Democrats are counting on African American
turnout to drive a win here, if they don’t quite get that then they lose. While the Obama margin over Kerry was up in
Cuyahoga proper, the overall region was much more mixed. Obama left the region up by about
280,000. To win the state Hillary needs
to win by at least 250,000 if not a bit more. While this region contains some
moneyed voters who might flip to her, there are also clearly quite a few downscale
whites here, as evidenced by this being a good but not overwhelming region for
Kasich. Greater Cuyahoa is not Greater Philadelphia in terms of margin which is
a large part of why Ohio is more Republican than Pennsylvania.
Greater Franklin is the region where Democrats
gained the most over Kerry. Kerry lost
the region by about 58,000 votes. Obama won it by about 55,000 votes. The change is primarily about Franklin County
and Columbus itself, which went from a Kerry 54% County to an Obama 60%, The
counties that make up the rest of the region are heavily Republican, but they
all trended toward Obama over Kerry. This
was also far and away Kasich’s best region in the primary in the state, in particular
Franklin proper and its rich northern neighbor. If there is a region where HRC
might beat the Obama margin it is here, although that does require a solid
African American turnout in Columbus.
Northwest
Ohio is a region where Obama did much better than Kerry. Obama only lost it by 75,000 votes, whereas
Kerry lost it by 140,000 votes. It is a
region where Obama was up considerably in a high percentage of counties and
down only in six small rural counties. We don’t really see much reason to believe the
Obama number will hold, and in fact seeing Clinton run behind Kerry would not
be much of shock. This is primarily a very Republican region. What keeps the
margin close is Lucas (Toledo), which is the only County in the region which
Kerry won. Obama benefited here to a
large degree by his savaging of Romney on the Auto Bailout, and the success
thereof. If Clinton can hold better than
the Kerry number, she seems favored to keep Ohio. If she matches the Kerry
number, we will be up a long time with Ohio; but if, as seems likely, she bleeds
even more then this region along with the East is where Ohio will be lost.
Southwest Ohio is the final region and one
where there are mixed signals. It is a very Republican region, giving Romney a
roughly 120,000 margin. However the
margin was a considerably heftier 196,000 for Bush over Kerry. Hamilton County,
which contains Cincinnati, flipped sides, going from being Bush to Obama country
and in so doing changing a 23,000 deficit for Democrats into a 26,000 vote
lead. This explains the great majority
of Democratic gain across the region.
Given other dangers, Hillary Clinton probably needs to hold the line in
Hamilton to have a chance to win the state.
Unlike most of the other suburban areas, which voted against Trump until
the New York primary, this region was relatively split outside of Hamilton. As such it is not unreasonable to think Trump
will gain a bit of ground outside of Hamilton County. If Clinton can hold the Obama number in the
region she becomes tough to beat in the state. She can lose ground a little and
still win, but a loss of anything over 140,000 in the region, and Trump is
likely sailing to victory.
Ohio
is very close, but, unlike what’s happening in the other swing states, there
are no regions becoming so much more Democratic (Outside of Franklin County)
that progress can be expected. Even
Franklin County is not certain to produce a large Clinton margin (Miami-Dade in Florida is nearly certain to
produce a bigger margin for Hillary than it did for Obama). As such Clinton’s
task is about incremental holding, while trends are clearly against her in two
out of five regions. If Clinton is on
path to win by about 4 nationally, she probably guts it out here too. But
anything less and Ohio likely slips to Trump.
East
Greater Cleveland
Greater Franklin
NorthWest
Southwest
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