This week we
preview North Carolina. North Carolina was the state Romney won in 2012 that came
closest to falling into Democratic hands and one that Democrats are targeting
forcefully this year. North Carolina also has some interesting attributes. It
is one of only eight states in which President Obama actually received more
votes in 2012 than he did in 2008. The importance of this is that it likely
means that not very many voters flipped from Obama to Romney but instead Romney
was able to turnout more of his voters. So each candidate’s ground game may
make the difference here.
In 2008,
John McCain lacked the resources to defend the state. McCain didn’t make it a
priority because if it fell it was nearly certain he had already lost. By
contrast, Barack Obama worked the state exceptionally hard, winning it by
14,000 votes. In 2012, Romney knew he had to win and found his way to a 92,000
victory fueled by more voters.
And not much
has changed. Digging into the county-by-county data, the story of North
Carolina is one of consistency. In 2012, Obama basically ran about two points
worse per county that he did statewide in 2008. There were a few small
exceptions where Obama did a little better and there were a few places he did
worse but basically there are not that many minds to change in the state.
Campaigns are thus just an effort to bring your voters to the polls.
North
Carolina’s transformation from being a state Democrats lost in 2000 and 2004 by
13 and 12 points respectively to a swing state has come about due to changes in
its largest counties. Six of them went from being close counties in 2000 to
being Obama strongholds in 2012. Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Wake (Raleigh),
Guilford (Greensboro), Forsyth (Winston Salem), Cumberland (Fayetteville), and Buncombe
(Asheville) joined Durham as strong Democratic counties but even it got much
more so.
The
incredible improvements by Democrats in this region come from an influx of
Northern transplants. The same in migration ended up moving Northern Virginia
into a Democratic stronghold. Democrats have lost ground in western and eastern
North Carolina, particularly in the far south and north east, but in the middle
of the state with the large population centers Democratic gains have more than offset
losses elsewhere. Even in the counties where Democrats are losing ground, the
declines can only be so big because the African American population gives
Democrats a decent-sized floor.
What this
means overall is that North Carolina is the kind of state that is very likely
to be decided by a close enough margin that the campaigns’ ground games will
matter a great deal. We are already starting
to see some evidence of this. More than half of all new registrants come from the
biggest Obama counties (four of the seven mentioned above plus Orange where the
University of North Carolina is located) although those counties represent just
31% of all voters. (Dave Wasserman at Cook Political report supplied this
information.) North Carolina is exactly the sort of state where Democratic GOTV
efforts might just be enough to edge it in Clinton’s direction.
A very large
percentage of North Carolina’s vote is cast early and lots of data from its early
vote is reported, thus providing an earlier indication of how things are
shaping up than most states.
Although North
Carolina is not normally essential to getting a Democrat to 270, it can be a
source of stress for the Republicans. It’s rather late in the election season
for the state still to be on the board. Obama mostly gave up here in 2012,
while keeping the pressure on. After the convention in Charlotte, he did not set
foot in the state again. Hillary Clinton was there today.
North
Carolina is trending Democratic. Romney won the state but his improvement in the
state over McCain in 2008 was less that his marginal improvement nationwide. It
may be the Democratic trend plus the get-out-of-the vote work will be enough
for Clinton to win here.
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