Donald Trump is now somewhat shockingly within range of
winning this race. There are still
certainly hurdles in the way of his victory. But we must admit that he is now
closer than we expected him to get, and it can be relatively easily asserted
that the race is virtually tied. What is
causing this? The answer is quite simply one of generation. Donald Trump is the candidate of the
old. There is a profound hunger and
nostalgia among many in America for the way things used to be. Donald Trump’s entire being in this campaign
has spoken to that. Worried about the
complications of the world from Trade, to Immigration, to Technological change
or threats like ISIS? All of these
things, Trump tells us, can be overcome by American strength. Those who tell
you otherwise are weak and stupid. That
is the core of the Trump message from the beginning of his campaign, and it has
never wavered. It is a view embraced by 40% of Americans and if you go to the
RCP average even as the race spirals into a tie, the four-way average still
puts Trump at 40.9% of the vote. The
two way average adds 3.1% to get Trump to 44% as Republicans return to the
flock. Older voters and less educated
voters lead the pack for Trump. Whites without a college degree give Trump 58%
of their votes and almost certainly over 60% if you include voters old enough
to be unlikely to have had a chance at college. This base of voters is fired up and energized,
and their candidate from the primary was victorious.
On the other side, many voters under the age of 30 had to
taste political defeat for the first time during the primaries. (Obviously they
have also lost in midterms, but they also barely voted in the midterms). These
voters are still grappling with the loss. Voters under 30 overwhelmingly do not like
Donald Trump, are not voting for Donald Trump and think he is not qualified to
be President. However they also have bought into many of the negative Hillary
Clinton memes and thus are making up a smaller % of the electorate and voting
for Clinton at considerably less of a rate than those whites without a college
degree are voting for Trump. The forces
of nostalgia want to win badly and the future of the country thinks everything
is terrible so why bother. There is
still time for this to change, and debates do have an effect of crystalizing
opinion. But for the moment the power of Nostalgia seems to be keeping Trump in
serious contention. These voters badly want this, and that can sometimes be
enough.
0 comments:
Post a Comment