Polling Update #21: Race has tightened, time to look at Clinton’s path of least resistance to 270.

           There can be little doubt that the Presidential race is closer than it was last week. It is possible it will get closer still. Clinton leads by 3.1% points 48.0% to 44.9 % in the two-way RCP average, down from 5.5% last week: 47.8% to 42.3%.  In the 4 way the margin is now at 3.2 %:  45.6% to 42.4%, which is down from 5 points last week 44.9% to 39.9%.  Besides the obvious tightening, the clear thing about these polls is that Clinton hasn’t lost any support, but Trump has gained.   Since Clinton was very close to being on a winning number already, this may just be natural partisan returning to the fold.  Frankly this current set of polling is heavy on daily tracking polls and short on the national surveys from big firms, which we are more inclined to trust.  Still the race is close enough that the Electoral College scenarios, which usually don’t come into play, may now clearly come to the fore.  On this front the path forward for Clinton is clear.  

Obama won states that earned him 272 electoral votes with the smallest margin in any of those states being 5.37%. Clinton is currently showing a lead in almost all of those states save Iowa, which is giving a slight polling edge to Trump. Clinton makes up for that by gaining Virginia, which was already the state Obama won by biggest margin of states he did not need. Since Virginia’s 13 electoral votes are more than Iowa’s 6 this puts Clinton on 279 electoral votes.   This gives her the leeway to lose either Nevada (which is looking increasingly unlikely because of the early vote) or New Hampshire.

 Clinton is a bit imperiled in Maine’s 2^nd Congressional district which is worth 1 electoral vote and comes into play in a mostly tiny set of possibilities. Trump is still eyeing Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Pennsylvania as possible places to gain but none seems particularly likely.  Clinton also has strong chances in North Carolina and Florida, with Ohio and Iowa still very close and even Arizona presenting as a true tossup.   These additional five states, while interesting, are not where the real battle to 270 is.   The path of least resistance for Clinton with Obama need states plus Virginia and minus Iowa still seems to have her on track to win.  Yet loss of a single state(save Nevada or New Hampshire) can upset this applecart and thus her victory is far from secure.