Sunday, March 13, 2016

The Sanders “Winning” Scenario

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 For the sake of argument and because of the push back we received after calling the Democratic race, we decided to do the math on how Sanders “could” win.  Obviously, we do not think this can happen, and the delegate allocations we will post for Tuesday’s states will give a clear indication of why we think Sanders is lost.  However someone rightly pointed out that it was unfair to call for 538 to update its delegate benchmarks, unless we also did so.  What follows then is a chart showing what Sanders would need in every single delegate allocation that remains. Secretary Clinton leads by 225. This shows Sanders winning the remaining contests by 226 delegates for a 1 pledged delegate win.  We cannot envision a winning scenario for Sanders actually transpiring, but this is what it would like if it did.    
Bucket
Sanders

Clinton
OH AL
16
15
OH PLEO
10
9
OH 1
2
2
OH 2
2
2
OH 3
5
7
OH 4
2
2
OH 5
2
2
OH 6
2
2
OH 7
2
2
OH 8
2
2
OH 9
4
4
OH 10
2
2
OH 11
7
10
OH 12
2
2
OH 13
4
4
OH14
2
2
OH15
2
2
OH 16
2
2
FL AL
23
23
FL PLEO
14
14
FL 1
2
1
FL 2
3
3
FL 3
2
2
FL 4
2
2
FL 5
3
3
FL 6
3
2
FL 7
3
2
FL 8
3
2
FL 9
3
2
FL 10
3
2
FL 11
3
2
FL 12
3
2
FL 13
3
3
FL 14
3
3
FL 15
3
2
FL 16
3
3
FL 17
2
2
FL 18
3
3
FL 19
2
2
FL 20
3
4
FL 21
3
4
FL 22
3
3
FL 23
3
3
FL 24
3
5
FL 25
2
1
FL 26
2
2
FL 27
2
2
IL AL
18
16
IL PLEO
11
9
IL 1
3
6
IL 2
3
5
IL 3
3
2
IL 4
3
2
IL 5
3
3
IL 6
3
2
IL 7
3
6
IL 8
2
2
IL 9
4
3
IL 10
3
2
IL 11
3
2
IL 12
4
2
IL 13
3
2
IL 14
2
2
IL 15
2
2
IL 16
3
2
IL 17
4
2
IL 18
2
2
MO AL
9
6
MO PLEO
5
4
MO 1
4
6
MO 2
3
3
MO 3
3
2
MO 4
3
2
MO 5
3
4
MO 6
3
2
MO 7
2
2
MO 8
3
2
NC AL
11
12
NC PLEO
7
7
NC 1
3
5
NC 2
2
2
NC 3
2
2
NC 4
4
4
NC 5
2
3
NC 6
2
3
NC 7
2
2
NC 8
2
2
NC 9
3
2
NC 10
3
2
NC 11
2
2
NC 12
3
5
NC 13
3
3
AZ AL
8
8
AZ PLEO
5
4
AZ 1
3
3
AZ 2
4
4
AZ 3
3
2
AZ 4
2
2
AZ 5
3
2
AZ 6
3
3
AZ 7
3
2
AZ 8
3
2
AZ 9
3
3
ID AL
4
1
ID PLEO
2
1
ID 1
6
2
ID 2
5
2
UT AL
5
2
UT PLEO
3
1
UT 1
4
1
UT 2
4
2
UT 3
4
1
UT 4
4
2
AK AL
3
1
AK PLEO
1
1
AK 1
7
3
HI AL
4
2
HI PLEO
2
1
HI 1
6
2
HI 2
6
2
WA  AL
16
6
WA PLEO
9
3
WA 1
5
2
WA 2
5
2
WA 3
4
2
WA 4
3
1
WA 5
4
1
WA 6
5
2
WA 7
9
3
WA 8
4
2
WA 9
5
2
WA 10
4
2
WI AL
11
8
WI PLEO
6
4
WI 1
4
2
WI 2
8
3
WI 3
4
3
WI 4
4
6
WI 5
3
2
WI 6
4
2
WI 7
4
2
WI 8
4
2
WY AL
3
1
WY PLEO
1
1
WY 1
6
2
NY AL
27
27
NY PLEO
15
15
NY 1
3
3
NY 2
3
3
NY 3
3
4
NY 4
3
3
NY 5
2
4
NY 6
2
4
NY 7
3
4
NY 8
2
4
NY 9
2
4
NY 10
3
3
NY 11
3
2
NY 12
3
3
NY 13
2
4
NY 14
3
4
NY 15
2
4
NY 16
3
3
NY 17
3
3
NY 18
3
3
NY 19
3
2
NY 20
4
3
NY 21
4
2
NY 22
3
2
NY 23
3
2
NY 24
4
2
NY 25
3
3
NY 26
4
3
NY 27
4
2
CT AL
7
5
CT Pleo
4
3
CT 1
5
3
CT 2
4
3
CT 3
4
3
CT 4
4
3
CT 5
4
3
DE AL
2
3
DE PLEO
1
1
DE Wimington
1
1
DE New Castle
4
4
DE Kent
1
1
DE Sussex
1
1
MD AL
10
11
MD PLEO
5
5
MD 1
3
3
MD 2
3
4
MD 3
4
4
MD 4
4
6
MD 5
4
5
MD 6
3
4
MD 7
4
5
MD 8
4
4
PA AL
21
21
PA PLEO
10
10
PA 1
4
6
PA 2
6
8
PA 3
4
2
PA 4
4
2
PA 5
3
2
PA 6
4
3
PA 7
4
4
PA 8
4
3
PA 9
3
2
PA 10
3
2
PA 11
3
3
PA 12
3
3
PA 13
4
5
PA 14
4
5
PA 15
3
3
PA 16
3
2
PA 17
4
3
PA 18
4
2
RI AL
4
2
RI PLEO
2
1
RI 1
5
3
RI 2
4
3
IN AL
9
9
IN PLEO
5
4
IN 1
4
4
IN 2
4
2
IN 3
3
2
IN 4
3
2
IN 5
4
3
IN 6
3
2
IN 7
3
5
IN 8
4
2
IN 9
4
2
WV AL
4
2
WV PLEO
2
1
WV 1
5
2
WV 2
4
3
WV 3
4
2
KY AL
7
5
KY PLEO
4
2
KY 1
3
2
KY 2
4
2
KY 3
4
5
KY 4
4
2
KY 5
2
2
KY 6
4
3
OR AL
9
4
OR PLEO
5
2
OR 1
6
3
OR 2a
2
1
Or 2b
2
1
OR 3
8
3
OR 4
6
2
OR 5
5
2
CA AL
57
48
CA PLEO
29
24
CA 1
3
3
CA 2
5
3
CA 3
3
3
CD 4
3
3
CA 5
4
3
CA 6
4
2
CA 7
3
3
CA 8
2
3
CA 9
4
2
CA 10
2
3
CA 11
4
3
CA 12
6
3
CA 13
6
2
CA 14
4
3
CA 15
4
3
CA 16
2
3
CA 17
4
2
CA 18
5
3
CA 19
4
2
CA 20
4
2
CA 21
2
2
CA 22
2
3
CA 23
2
3
CA 24
4
2
CA 25
3
2
CA 26
3
3
CA 27
3
3
CA 28
4
3
CA 29
2
3
CA 30
3
4
CA 31
2
3
CA 32
3
3
CA 33
4
3
CA 34
2
3
CA 35
2
3
CA 36
3
2
CA 37
3
4
CA 38
3
3
CA 39
3
3
CA 40
2
3
CA 41
3
2
CA 42
2
3
CA 43
2
4
CA 44
3
3
CA 45
3
3
CA 46
2
3
CA 47
3
3
CA 48
3
3
CA 49
3
3
CA 50
3
2
CA 51
2
3
CA 52
3
3
CA 53
3
4
MT AL
3
1
MT PLEO
1
1
MT West
5
3
MT East
4
3
ND AL
3
1
PLEO
1
1
ND 1
8
4
SD AL
3
1
SD PLEO
1
1
SD 1
9
5
NM AL
3
4
NM PLEO
2
2
NM 1
4
4
NM 2
3
4
NM 3
4
4
NJ  AL
14
14
NJ PLEO
7
7
NJ DD 1
2
2
NJ DD 2
2
2
NJ DD 3
2
3
NJ DD 4
2
3
NJ DD 5
2
2
NJ DD 6
2
2
NJ DD 7
1
2
NJ DD 8
2
3
NJ DD 9
2
2
NJ DD 10
2
2
NJ DD 11
2
3
NJ DD 12
2
2
NJ  DD 13
1
2
NJ DD 14
2
2
NJ DD 15
2
3
NJ DD 16
2
2
NJ DD 17
2
2
NJ DD 18
2
3
NJ DD 19
2
2
NJ DD 20
2
2
DC AL
2
3
DC  MD 1
3
4
DC MD 2
3
3
DC PLEo
1
1
VI ST
Thomas
2
2
VI ST Croix
1
2
Guam
4
3
DA
9
4
PR AL
6
7
PR PLEO
3
4
PR 1
3
5
PR 2
3
3
PR 3
2
2
PR 4
2
2
PR 5
2
2
PR 6
2
2
PR 7
2
2
PR 8
3
3
1475
1249



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Saturday, March 12, 2016

The Ultimate Multi-Candidate Field Dynamics Dilemma: Is It Better for Not-Trump if Kasich Does or Does Not Win Ohio?

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We are getting a sense of what the Republican primary end game will look like. Five states vote on Tuesday. If trends hold Trump looks likely to win in Missouri, Illinois, Florida and North Carolina. These results alone should net him roughly 245 delegates. (Cruz or Kasich could win some Congressional districts in Missouri and Illinois that have the potential to decrease Trump’s total but for simplicity’s sake we’re assuming he takes all and can round down accordingly.) Rubio looks completely dead in Florida and everywhere else, so he will likely be gone by Wednesday.

What will happen in Ohio is very much up for grabs and determines to some degree whether we will continue writing about multi-candidate field dynamics. If John Kasich wins Ohio, which is looking more and more likely, he stays in the race. That decision has an incredible impact on the race going forward. And the race will continue under either scenario. Even with a clean sweep of Ohio, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina, Donald Trump will still be only about 63% of the way to getting the 1237 delegates he needs for the nomination.

The question bedeviling Republicans is whether a Kasich win is good for stopping Trump or bad for stopping Trump. This argument splits into three parts. We will show how a Kasich win is bad for stopping Trump, good for stopping Trump, and uncertain for stopping Trump.

A Kasich Win is Bad for Stopping Trump

At first glance, it seems like a good idea to deny Trump Ohio’s 66 delegates but upon closer inspection the math gets really crazy. Arizona votes the very next week. It is winner take all and has 58 delegates. A poll conducted in the state just yesterday shows the race: Trump 37, Cruz 23, Kasich 15, and Rubio 12. Rubio will be gone--although because of absentee ballots not all of his votes will be. In a two-person race, Trump versus Cruz, this would appear to be a close contest. But if Kasich stays in that clearly helps Trump win Arizona. Utah, on the same day, has a precinct caucus. Delegates are allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold to get any delegates, but if a candidate reaches 50%, he wins all the delegates. Based on LDS voting (members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, or Mormons) in places such as Idaho. Cruz could get to 50% in Utah, even with Kasich in the race. Without him, he almost certainly does. Otherwise, Trump won’t win but based on how he did in Idaho, he could walk away with 10 delegates. Therefore in just the next two states, Kasich’s continuing presence in the race could give Trump all the delegates that Kasich took from him in Ohio. In addition, Washington state has a 50% winner take all threshold that could be good for Cruz in a race without Kasich. Also, Cruz might be able to win the winner-take-all states of Nebraska, Montana, and South Dakota even with Kasich in the race but he’s more likely to if he is gone. These are the main reasons a Kasich win is bad for Not-Trump.

A Kasich Win is Good for Stopping Trump

However things are not quite that simple. Trump so far has been incredibly strong in Blue States and In Northeastern states, with the exception of the Maine caucus. New Jersey, New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware and Pennsylvania are all upcoming and together hold 299 delegates. New Jersey and Delaware are winner take all, while Connecticut, Maryland and Pennsylvania are near winner take all. There isn’t polling in those states so far, with the exception of this survey of Connecticut business people.

The survey has a very small sample size so it should be taken with mounds of salt. It showed Trump and Kasich running close--with Cruz far behind. This suggests Kasich will do better as a Trump alternative in the North, as the results in New Hampshire, Vermont, and Massachusetts also bear out. New York is particularly helpful to the Kasich is good for stopping Trump argument. New York has winner-take-all triggers at 50%, which Trump would almost certainly clear in a two-man race but which he could be held under in a three-person race. This could keep Trump from upwards of 30 delegates in New York. Those delegates, plus those Kasich would get in Ohio, is why Kasich is good for not Trump.

A Kasich Win is Mixed for Stopping Trump

The crown jewel states of Wisconsin, Indiana and California seem to point to a mixed result if Kasich is still in the race when voters go to the polls in April, May and June. Each state is near winner take all at the Congressional district and statewide level. Cruz could sweep them all one on one but there are clearly pockets that would favor Kasich. The problem is that a three-way race risks another Michigan-like result with Trump getting around 35% of the vote but still parlaying that to a lot of delegates. The plus side is that Kasich makes a better challenger to Trump in California than Cruz and together they pick off more delegates than Trump. The downside is all three states will resemble Michigan and Trump will win a lot.

What Would be Required to Stop Trump

This is a puzzle. It requires Cruz and Kasich to sit down and sign an agreement to encourage strategic voting among their supporters. The candidates then need to actively and constantly push this agreement to deny Trump delegates. However that may be exactly the sort of activity that feeds the fires of the Trumpism and builds the narrative of the big bad establishment out to get conservatives. For that reason, Cruz is unlikely to go along. And the one attempt at such a deal didn’t work at all. Kasich brutally brushed aside Rubio’s minor effort to get an Ohio-for-Florida swap with Kasich. Even if such a deal could be reached, it would be incredibly difficult to get people to vote strategically. More than anything else, it is the lack of strategic voting that has enabled Trump’s rise. Trump’s entire lead can be attributed to the 48 delegates he received in Texas and Cruz did not. Cruz did not get to 50% in Texas because other candidates, mostly Rubio, blocked that path. Had Cruz been able to get to 50% and thus trigger the winner take all provision, he and Trump would be basically tied. It would have been 155 to 0 Cruz, as opposed to 104 Cruz, 48 Trump,3 Rubio. No use crying over spilled delegates but this shows just how important the rules are and how strange this process can be.

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Friday, March 11, 2016

The Dangers in Strategic Voting: How Everything Could Benefit Trump  

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It is the Friday before another key election day and finally it has dawned on the Republicans that that to beat Donald Trump they actually have to figure out the rules by which they elect delegates and encourage their voters to think similarly.  

The bottom line is that either Donald Trump or Marco Rubio is going to win Florida and either Donald Trump or John Kasich is going to win Ohio. These are facts. In theory the path forward is clear. If you want to stop Trump, vote for Rubio in Florida and Kasich in Ohio. But it is nowhere near that simple. A continued four-person race allows Trump to win more delegates in winner-take-all and near winner-take-all states later in the calendar. With the exception of a handful of remaining states, Trump would seem to be a heavy favorite in four-way races. 

Thus the death of Rubio is essential for the anti-Trump forces. At the same time, they would also love to take Florida away from Trump, and Rubio seems to be the only one that could do it (though in reality it seems too late). But if Rubio wins Florida, he won’t do the Republican establishment the favor of dropping out. 

The problem for Not-Trump is that Rubio’s continuing presence in the race puts Ohio, as well as delegates in Missouri and Illinois that vote the same day, in jeopardy. The odds of wining Florida seem too small to be worth risking those other states and so there is pressure on Rubio to quit now. 

But Rubio seemingly believes he will come back and win Florida. And he believes he is the strongest candidate. He hasn’t withdrawn and almost certainly won’t before Tuesday’s voting. Still, he wants to quiet the storm. So his team told his supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio. Leaving aside whether that is the correct anti-Trump move, it is clearly the correct Rubio move. If both Rubio and Kasich win their home states, it is impossible to pressure one to quit without saying the other should quit too. Rubio also can benefit from this ploy, ideally by picking up Kasich supporters in Florida. That might enable Rubio to make up the gap with Trump. (The fact that so many ballots have already been cast in early voting makes this harder than is generally assumed.)  

The Kasich camp, however, knows that the continued presence of Rubio is a virus that can only weaken their efforts, and thus they responded: `We don’t need your help in Ohio and by the way, you are going to lose Florida.’  When one team advocates strategic voting and the other team mocks those efforts, the person advocating for what might be the best course still looks bad. That’s an important lesson if Kasich wins Ohio and the race winnows to three candidates. It’s also important if Rubio pulls off Florida and the three non-Trumps are stuck playing this game in a string of winner-take-all states.  


What is amazing is that there is something that favors Trump in just about every scenario. Almost every possible outcome makes it more likely that Trump will get the most votes and the most delegates, declare victory and dare the Republican Party to test his resolve. That is likely to happen, even if his goal of getting to the majority of 1237 delegates was dashed by a bad day on March 15th. 
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The Scorecard

The Scorecard

The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

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Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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