Thursday, August 4, 2016

How Trump Weathered Previous Storms is Why He Might Struggle to Weather This One

It would take far too much time to recite all of Donald Trump’s comments that have made heads turned or caused problems. Of course, this has happened before. Throughout the primary season, Trump consistently made incendiary comments but he then had a huge advantage. A gaffe would occur but, before you knew it, a new poll would arrive, Trump would still be ahead, and all of the sudden, the comment didn’t look like a gaffe anymore.

Trump’s lead over his opponents, which was basically wire to wire, meant that the polling metaphorically had his back. As this most recent controversy heats up, the polling, rather than having his back, is actually stabbing him in the back. Clinton’s recent strength in the polls, which could have been interpreted as a Democratic Convention bounce, is instead being seen as part of the Trump-in-free-fall story. This will lead to more press coverage of the bad polling and the controversy that caused it. The very same cycle that was virtuous for Trump in the primary is damaging in the general election.

The Trump campaign needs to change the story quickly, which is a Trump specialty. But finding a statement that is considered outrageous by the elite yet liked by a majority of Americans is much more difficult than finding a statement that is considered outrageous by the elite yet liked by a majority of Republican primary voters.

Events could still change the spiral. Part of the problem for Trump, however, is that the idea he can’t control his attack may be sinking in. Once someone believes someone else is crazy that is a hard thing to unbelieve. 

Trump has defied gravity for a long time but gravity may ultimately get him. 







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The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

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Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.