Clinton has
regained the RCP average lead by 3.9, 45.9 to 42.0 – though we urge the same
level of caution about this week’s polling results that we did about last week’s.
Poking under
the hood a bit, we see that the average continues to weigh some of the
Republican bounce. To correct for that, we looked at the median polling number as
opposed to the average. Clinton has a 5-point lead in the median poll. But this
could just as easily reflect a Clinton convention bounce that will recede back
to where things were before both conventions. It is also possible that the equilibrium
point is where the race was before the FBI director released his blistering
non-indictment indictment. In that case, a 5-point lead is about accurate.
Next week
may tell us if that’s where the race is settling. Waiting another week after
that might even be prudent.
The one
thing that is probably fair to state is that Clinton leads, not Trump. By how
much is unclear but the fact of a lead seems to be quite clear. We will know
more next week whether Clinton set an equilibrium or is just bouncing herself.
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