Friday, July 29, 2016

The Democratic Convention wanted you to learn; the Republican Convention wanted you to feel.

This was the biggest contrast between the parties’ big parties: the Democratic Convention wanted to drive home information and the Republican Convention wanted to push emotional buttons.

 The Republicans two touchstones: anger at past Clinton mistakes and fear over crime and ISIS.  Peddling anger and fear is not inherently a bad political strategy but it is harder as a take away from a political convention. Although these themes emerged during the convention, not everyone on the stage was willing to drive the message.

By contrast, the Democratic Convention strived to teach some very specific things about both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

 First about Clinton. Democrats provided lots of newish information. As a young lawyer, Clinton worked at the Children’s Defense Fund where she helped find disabled children who were kept out of school, helped shut down Alabama’s racially segregated academies, and helped reform South Carolina’s juvenile justice system. As First Lady she worked tirelessly after losing the healthcare battle in 1994 to secure medical benefits for 8 million children. As New York’s Senator, she worked on behalf of 9/11 first responders to get them the healthcare they needed. The Convention featured lots of people who were willing to testify to these aspects of Clinton’s career. They demonstrated that Clinton had been working on these things throughout her entire life. The key points: Clinton’s consistency and her connections with real people. 

And then there’s Trump. With Trump as a target, there was a lot of material to go after and pretty much all of it was used. When it came to his business record, however, there was surprising little about Trump University, and not too much about individuals who he had stiffed throughout his business career. The key Trump business take away was that Trump products are made in other countries. This was an interesting strategy. Of all the charges against Trump, this one seems to be the one based the least on something Trump could control. In almost none of these cases did Trump actually make the product in question; he just licensed his name to already existing supply chains. The Democratic strategy seemed to be to fixate on a simple story even if involved a less good example. For instance, on the charges he defrauded students at Trump University, Trump can respond that everyone who attended said they liked the program. On the claims of people who he hired and didn’t get fully paid, he can say they didn’t do a good job. But the explanation for why Trump used foreign manufacturers for Trump products is the very same complicated reason that leads so many U.S. companies to go overseas. Thus if he can’t change the manufacturing of his own products, how can he change it for everyone?

“Stronger Together” was the other message that weaved through the Convention. It fit neatly with the facts related about Clinton: Trump is exclusive, Democrats and Clinton are inclusive. Over four nights, the Democratic Convention included in its program the types of people Trump excludes

Conclusion:
The Clinton campaign wanted you to know certain things. It seems to have gotten that done. The Trump campaign wanted you to feel a certain way and it mostly got that done. Which is a more effective approach remains to be seen..



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The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

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Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.