Today is the first day of the Republican Convention. We
warned last week this is an exceptionally volatile polling time. That caveat
should still be born in mind.
This has been a relatively good set of polls for Donald Trump
as he closes from being down 4.5% to 3.2% in the RCP average. The week started particularly well for Trump
but closed less well as the three most recent polls show bigger leads for
Clinton than the average. Trump is also aided by Rasmussen showing him with a
7-point lead, the only poll in the average to show any Trump lead.
The overall contours, however, have not changed. Trump is at
40%. He in fact dropped from 40.9% last week to 40.6% this week. Clinton took the
brunt of the e-mail scandal at the beginning of the week but seems to have
recovered by the end of the week.
This week has the Republican Convention and the Democratic
V.P. pick, so whatever next Monday brings will be hard to hard to read against
the noise. We will bring the numbers nonetheless.
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