Monday, July 18, 2016

Polling Update # 7: Chaos Season

Today is the first day of the Republican Convention. We warned last week this is an exceptionally volatile polling time. That caveat should still be born in mind. 

This has been a relatively good set of polls for Donald Trump as he closes from being down 4.5% to 3.2% in the RCP average.  The week started particularly well for Trump but closed less well as the three most recent polls show bigger leads for Clinton than the average. Trump is also aided by Rasmussen showing him with a 7-point lead, the only poll in the average to show any Trump lead.

The overall contours, however, have not changed. Trump is at 40%. He in fact dropped from 40.9% last week to 40.6% this week. Clinton took the brunt of the e-mail scandal at the beginning of the week but seems to have recovered by the end of the week.  

This week has the Republican Convention and the Democratic V.P. pick, so whatever next Monday brings will be hard to hard to read against the noise. We will bring the numbers nonetheless. 
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Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.