Polling Update # 6: All Quiet on the Polling Front ~ The Scorecard

Monday, July 11, 2016

Polling Update # 6: All Quiet on the Polling Front

This week finds the race unchanged. Clinton leads by 4.5% in the RCP average down ever so slightly from last week’s 4.6. This is due almost entirely to polls being dropped off the average for timeliness. (A Pew poll with Clinton plus 9 was dropped because it was released about a week after it was conducted.) The one pro-Trump poll left in the average, Rasmussen, actually shrunk its Trump lead from 4 to 2 this week. Trump is still sitting on 40.9, which is a nudge over 40 but not much.

There is no doubt we are heading into a turbulent polling period. Trump is likely to name his V.P. selection this week. It is looking like Sanders will endorse Clinton this week as well. The following week is the Republican Convention, followed the next week by the Democratic Convention. Thus it is likely we will not be getting a clean, non-event driven poll until the first or even second week of August. (That means polling not conducted during an event window or immediately after an event window.)

We will update the polls over the next month anyway but the results should be taken with even more salt than usual.

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The Scorecard

The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

The Scorecard

Monday, July 11, 2016