We are now
deep into the general election so it is a good time to begin the process of
looking into House Races. We will
ultimately be drilling down on every single House race and predicting them all.
But for now we’ll just provide the overview.
For Democrats
to retake the House they would need a gain of 30 seats. The Cook Political Report
is a good place to look for initial ratings of each race. We don’t agree with
every one of its calls but it’s great for an overview. According to the Cook
Ratings, Democrats are currently threating to take 33 seats that are listed as
“Lean Republican” or better. Republicans only have seven such seats available.
This should
come as no surprise. In 2014, the Republicans won almost everything that was
possible for them to win, which leaves a lot of vulnerable seats this time
around. But netting 30 seats off of 33 chances seems incredibly unlikely,
particularly since one Democratic seat is likely already gone. That means that
Dems need to win 31 out of 33 possibilities. It does not seem doable, even if
the list of targets expands to an additional 11 seats that Cook lists as “Likely
Republican.” Democrats would still need to win 31 out of 44 seats.
To be in
contention, Democrats need to add another 16 seats to the target list to get up
to about 60 seats in play. Without extra races, the odds of a party switch are
slim. The question is which seats might get added to the board. We will know
more in a few weeks when this quarter’s finance reports come out.
For now,
Speaker Ryan seems likely in 2017.
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