The Who Do You Hate More Election

Last night’s Republican Convention was supposed to be focused on jobs. Instead it was clear that the focus was on Hillary Clinton, whether because it is the one major thing upon which Republicans agree or because their nominee’s favorable numbers are bad.

 It almost doesn’t matter. The major point is that when you get into any specifics of what Republicans want to do or what Trump has done the risk is it will be incredibly unpopular. The one argument that Republicans hope will work is disdain for Hillary Clinton. The fact is that is what seems to be working in the polls. Trump does not gain much in terms of new voter support -- he has hung around 40% for a while now -- but Clinton does fall. Given both candidates’ current unpopularity, it may simply be that neither one is going to be within shouting distance of 50% of the vote. The new win number might be closer to 45%.

For Trump, the lower the percentage of the vote that he needs to win the better it is for him. This explains much of what’s gone on at the convention the last two nights. What is interesting is this emphasis runs counter to the other imperative of the Trump campaign -- that Trump be at the center of attention at all times. Need proof? Trump said he was not going to speak every night of his convention but he now is speaking every night of his convention. 

The less people see of Trump perhaps the better for him as the campaign can bring the focus back to disdain for Clinton. That goes against the style of the candidate. This tension will be on display for the next two days and throughout the rest of the campaign.