Monday’s Democratic
Convention basically accomplished what the party had hoped for. But there was
an important exception: noisy interruptions from some in the audience, including
several delegates, marred the picture of party unity. Not surprisingly, the media,
used to entirely stage managed conventions with nothing but stand-and-clap
delegates, focused on the disruptions and what they meant. But maybe they shouldn’t
have – at least not as much. This convention is different because the factors
that drove the Sanders campaign are different and thus his delegates are
different.
For Sanders,
selecting delegates was a particular challenge. A lot of the people who are
chosen to be delegates to the convention are long time party people: people who
have been delegates in the past; people who serve in party organizations or
work for party-backed politicians. The pool of such people supporting Sanders
was incredibly small. Sanders probably had 10 real Congressional endorsers, and
maybe 100 or so state legislative endorsements nationwide. This left a very
small pool of traditional delegate types for Sanders. He required
unconventional delegates. Plus, in competing for these slots, strong support
for Bernie Sanders was much more likely to win a delegate a slot than
experience or a willingness to be reasonable. Revolutionaries do not see
themselves as reasonable.
It was also
notable that California’s Sanders delegation proved to be one of the most disruptive. California chose its delegates entirely after
the election was over. Who would want to want to fly cross country knowing you
are going to lose, especially when going to the convention wasn’t seen as a
networking opportunity for partisans or operators? Only the most committed of
the committed Sanders supporters. Those are Bernie’s California delegates.
Given all
these factors, it was exceptionally unlikely that the Sanders campaign would be
able to choose delegates who would be able to stay under control. In fact,
someone Sanders selected to be on the platform committee defected to the Green
Party’s Jill Stein.
But one
should not assume Bernie delegates are representative of ordinary Bernie
primary voters; the amount of effort and therefore commitment required to be a
delegate is massive compared to what it takes to simply vote. Where Bernie
supporters go will be an important aspect of this election. Yet, it is clear
that the angriest, overly passionate supporters were much more likely to be
delegates and that Sanders was never going to be able to control them entirely.
That is not how self-styled revolutions work.
Of the 13
millions Sanders voters in the primaries, in the end about 10 million will vote
for Clinton, maybe one million for Trump, and the rest either will not vote or
vote for a third party. Sanders has
about 1900 delegates at the convention. If 200 or so are making noise (which
seems to be the case) that falls into line with these predictions.
This should
be a concern for the Democratic team, but the press should understand it for
what it is and not blow it out of proportion. Many Sanders people did not start
as Democrats and may not end up as
Democrats, but that does not automatically change the contours of the race.
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