The premier
data journalism blog, www.fivethiryeight.com, gets its name from the total
number of electoral votes. We cannot ignore that tradition. To gain a majority
and win the White House, you need to get 270 Electoral College votes. In trying
to figure out how a candidate will get to that number, there’s a tendency to
focus on big swing states rather than the tipping point states. We don’t think
that’s the best approach. We prefer to start with the combination of states that
enabled the winner to win in the most recent election.
There were six states that were key to Barack Obama’s getting to 272 in the 2012
selection. (Obama won an additional three states to end on 332 but he did not
need them.) Obama’s smallest margin of victory came in Colorado. The margin in Pennsylvania
was a very close second. The next four closest states that Obama relied upon
for his majority were New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin. The state that
Obama carried next was Virginia, which was extra. Notice this list does not
include Florida or Ohio. Florida and Ohio are very important to the Republicans;
it is absolutely essential that they win them both. Democrats have a
Virginia-based path and an even easier path to win without them.
The places
where Trump may be closer than in 2012 are Iowa, New Hampshire and perhaps
Wisconsin. Trump absolutely needs two out of three of these to win if he loses
Virginia. (Amazingly, such an outcome results in a tie that would throw the
election into the House of Representatives whose members can select whomever
they want to be President; they would be unlikely to pick Trump.)
This is how
the Electoral College math works and will continue to work as we go forward.
The Electoral College system could change dramatically for 2020.
ReplyDeleteThe National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country.
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps of pre-determined outcomes. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states (where the two major political parties happen to have similar levels of support among voters) where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in 38+ predictable states that have just been 'spectators' and ignored after the conventions.
The bill would take effect when enacted by states with a majority of the electoral votes—270 of 538.
All of the presidential electors from the enacting states will be supporters of the presidential candidate receiving the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC)—thereby guaranteeing that candidate with an Electoral College majority.
The bill has passed 34 state legislative chambers in 23 rural, small, medium, large, red, blue, and purple states with 261 electoral votes. The bill has been enacted by 11 small, medium, and large jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes – 61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
NationalPopularVote