The race has
gotten just a bit tighter since we last checked in. The RCP Average has moved
from a Clinton lead of 6.8 to 4.6. This qualifies as a slightly bad week for
the Clinton campaign. Such assumptions, however, can be somewhat misleading. The
real question often is not what the averages are but what the same poll said
the last time it was in the field. The two major declines come from dropping from
the average a Bloomberg poll that had Clinton +12 (it became too old) and the
dramatic swing in the Rasmussen poll from Clinton +5 to Trump +4. Rasmussen is
now the only poll to show a Trump lead. This does not entirely explain the
change in the average but it explains most of it.
It is also
the case that most of the shrinkage has come from losses for Clinton not gains
for Trump. Trump has moved from 39.6 to 40.3. His gains made up only a third of
the decrease in margin. Trump has been hovering near 40% and he still is.
The week of
bad news (the resurfacing of the e-mail scandal and the Bill Clinton/Lorretta
Lynch debacle) is now over, though not without a bit of damage. Things still
look very solid for Clinton but just a little less so than last week.
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