We have been clear in previous posts that readers should be prepared for changes, and indeed spikes, following the Republican convention. We now see this quite plainly. The RCP average has changed significantly, and Trump now leads 44.1 to 43.9% or up by .2%. This average likely understates his actual polling lead because in still includes some pre-convention polls.
This is entirely typical. The polls after the McCain convention showed McCain with an average lead of 2.5%, in an election in which he basically never led again and which he lost by 7.5 points. What is startling for those looking back is that in 2012 there was only one poll conducted after the Republican Convention started but before the Democratic Convention began. It did show a gain for Romney of 2 points. So convention bounces are clearly a thing.
We believe the wisest course for electoral observers is to wait to see how the polls shake out after the Democratic Convention before reaching a conclusion on where the race stands. But for now it is good to be Trump.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
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About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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