Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Shooting the Moon with Donald Trump

Today brought Trump staff shake-up number three and campaign leader number three-ish and with it a sense of the direction the campaign will take.

Donald Trump has proven himself incapable of being a “normal” candidate. His attempts lasted at most a few days or so before Trump said something else that so violates norms that a huge controversy ensued. Even if Donald Trump could pull off being normal, it does not seem likely to work. Trump being normal means Trump being boring. Given the damage some of his comments have already done, boring Trump is losing Trump. 

This shake-up is about returning to what makes Trump, Trump.  Donald Trump may not be able to improve his own performance so the best way for him to win is to attack, savage and destroy Hillary Clinton. Even the words, Clinton scandals, produce an endless stream of unpleasant thoughts. A great many of the “scandals” are bogus but a few are based in reality. Trump will also invent new, possibly darker ones.  Steve Bannon of Brietbart News seems like a great guy to help invent and sharpen such stories.  

Trump seems to be doing the equivalent of “shooting the moon” in the card game, Hearts. The game’s goal is to avoid points that come from capturing hearts and the queen of spades. But if you capture all of the hearts and the queen of spades, you get to either add all of those points to your opponent’s score, or subtract them all from yours. This is shooting the moon. If you fail to shoot the moon, however, it is extremely damaging because you likely take on a large number of points. 

Trump may have nothing left to lose by this strategy. His goal may simply be to make Clinton so unpopular that he wins by default. The odds of shooting the moon in Hearts are very low but there are points in the game where it is a wise strategy because there is no other way to win. Trump has very little to lose by trying it. But the same cannot be said of Congressional Republicans. There is still lots up for grabs for them. The bigger Trump loses, the worse it can be for them. It’s unlikely Trump cares about that. Trump aims to shoot the moon and does not care about the consequences. 





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The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

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Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.