Polling Update #11: Clinton Solid ~ The Scorecard

Monday, August 15, 2016

Polling Update #11: Clinton Solid

We are leaving behind the convention period and with it the need for overwhelming caution in assessing polling results. Caution is always wise but the reality of Clinton’s lead is now outside the possibility of a spike and more in the realm of a fact.

As of this writing, Clinton leads by 6.8 in the RCP average, 47.8% to 41% in a two-person match up. This is down a touch from last week due entirely to polls rolling off the average and not because of any other changes. Clinton leads 6.3% in the all-candidate match ups, 43.8% to 37.5%, with 8.4% for Johnson and 3% for Stein.

There are the slightest indications the race is a touch closer than the RCP average, at something more like a 5% lead. There is little to suggest, however, the race is any closer than that.

We will keep updating each week but for the moment Clinton seems to be a quite solid favorite.

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The Scorecard

The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.

The Scorecard

Monday, August 15, 2016