This past
week of polling clearly qualifies as the Clinton Campaign’s best so far. It now
leads 47.3% to 40.1% in the RCP average. If anything, Clinton’s lead may be a
bit bigger because the average excludes a poll showing her with a 13-point
advantage. That poll only asked for preferences in a four-way race rather than
a two-way race. We are thinking about constructing our own average.
In the
meantime, the point is clear. Clinton has hit what is probably a high water
mark for her that may still reflect a convention bounce. Another week of
polling would clearly be beneficial.
Still, as
leads go, this one is not small. Clinton also seems to have the makings of a
majority coalition well in hand. Non-whites plus educated whites, particularly
educated women, is a very strong coalition.
Trump’s
ability to make inroads with groups with which he is now weak seems to be going
in the wrong direction. He seems to get weaker as the election goes on. Less
educated white men are a massive base from which to build but they are nowhere
near enough. The equilibrium point may shift down from 7 to 5 points but what would
make it shift back much beyond that remains an open question.
For now,
Clinton leads is the clear headline.
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