This week
has seen the race merge back into being a closer affair as Clinton’s last week lead
of 6.8% in the RCP average has now shrunk to 5.5%. She leads 47% to 41.5%. This
is about where we thought the polling would be headed last week and it has
arrived. To put matters into perspective
Obama’s win in 2012 was by 3.9% and, because of his Electoral College tally,
his victory was considered fairly robust.
Still, it is
interesting that when Trump is not actively lighting himself on fire, which he
was able to avoid this week, things can improve for him slightly. The question
is how long can he avoid setting himself on fire. (Just this morning he
attacked the Morning Joe show hosts in very personal and inflammatory terms.)
As he
tightens the race, Trump makes gains primarily among those who were more likely
to be pre-disposed to vote for him. In other words, Trump gets closer by making
gains with Romney voters. Whether he can then make gains with Obama voters to
win is a whole different argument.
The race is
in fact closer this week, so we will stay on it.
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