Republican
Unity was able to produce a tie for Donald Trump in the national polls but in
the last two weeks that tie has slipped away. Hillary Clinton now has taken a
5.6 lead in the RCP average and leads in every poll that makes up the average.
(RCP doesn’t include online polls.) It is not a big lead but it is a bigger
polling lead than the percentage Obama won by in 2012. The online polls, which
we are so far ignoring but may examine at some point, show similar trends
In addition
to the head-to-head matchups as revealed in the RCP polls, we are seeing two
continuing and interesting trends. First, Trump seems stuck around 40% of the
vote in a large number of the polls. That speaks to the challenge he faces. The
voters he needs now don’t have a good opinion of him and he is not making
things better.
Second, poll
respondents who say they are undecided or prefer a third party is higher than
it has been in an election in a long time. Clinton and Trump combined currently
only hold 82.4% of the vote. The number who support the candidates of the two
leading parties is likely to increase but there’s a chance we might see another
President (like Clinton in 1992 and 1996) who wins without a majority of the
votes.
Still, Hillary
Clinton is gaining, which is a much bigger problem for Trump than for other
candidates. Being a winner is essential to his brand. Being behind is very hard
for him but that seems to be what he faces at the moment.
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