We are getting closer and closer to all quiet on the Western front when it comes
to polling. Clinton’s lead has increased slightly in the RCP average from 5.6%
to 6.8%. There are also now no polls whose most recent testing of the voters
has revealed a Trump lead. In the average and in almost all individual polls, Trump remains stuck near 40%. This is as true in polls where he trails
significantly such as the ABC/Washington Post poll that has Trump down 12 and
stuck on 39% as it is in tighter polls such as the Wall Street Journal/NBC Poll
which has Trump down only 5% but holding at 41%. In the average he is at 39.6%.
This has led Trump to begin an assault on polls calling the ABC/Washington Post
Poll dirty. Trump surrogates such as Sean
Hannity have also begun playing the polls are wrong game.
We did notice one interesting thing in Hannity’s generalized whine, which is that it uses a March story about how
many more R’s had voted than D’s. In reality, as we will explain more comprehensively in a later post after all the
votes are counted, there is now no doubt that more people participated in the Democratic primary process than in the Republican primary process. It was close and probably close enough that had the contested dragged on until the end on the R side, Republicans might have had more participants. This is a close call, and it is impossible to compare exactly because of all the different kinds of contests in different states. But the myth that many more Republicans voted needs to be put out of its misery. We
will tackle this more fully when all the numbers are in.
Overall the point remains a somewhat sizable Clinton lead
and a Trump campaign that is left attacking polls, a stance seldom taken by a
campaign that is winning. It hurts Trump’s brand to be behind.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
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About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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