This weekend’s contests hold a
considerable number of delegates: 7 in the Virgin Islands and 60 in Puerto
Rico. Everyone expects twin Clinton victories but lots of delegates are up for
grabs at the margins. In particular, many districts allocate four delegates,
which means cracking them (avoiding a tie) requires 62.5% of the vote. We think
Clinton will get there in all of them and thus win a bounty of delegates. But
it might be close and if she isn’t able to crack those districts, Clinton will
net just 11 delegates rather than the 23 we expect. There are five such
districts in Puerto Rico and one in the Virgin Islands. It is also possible she
will reach the magic number in some districts and not in others. The only
reason this matters is if, as we suggested yesterday, the Clinton campaign
decides to declare victory after the weekend rather than wait for Tuesday.
Otherwise, the delegate difference is just bookkeeping.
Total: Clinton 45 Sanders 22
Virgin Islands
Total: Clinton 5
Sanders 2
|
Delegate Allocation
|
Clinton
|
Sanders
|
|
VI St Thomas/ST John
|
3
|
1
|
|
St Croix
|
2
|
1
|
Puerto Rico
Total: Clinton 40 Sanders 20
|
PR AL
|
8
|
5
|
|
PR PLEO
|
4
|
3
|
|
PR 1
|
5
|
3
|
|
PR 2
|
4
|
2
|
|
PR 3
|
3
|
1
|
|
PR 4
|
3
|
1
|
|
PR 5
|
3
|
1
|
|
PR 6
|
3
|
1
|
|
PR 7
|
3
|
1
|
|
PR 8
|
4
|
2
|
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