Last night
ended the primary process. Secretary Clinton passed the threshold for a
majority of the overall delegates needed to win as well as a majority of
pledged delegates. She ended up winning by about 370 delegates (counting is
still going on and D.C. is to come).
At the
moment, the key to this election is a battle for unity. Whichever candidate can
best unify his or her party will start as a favorite. In 2012, when both
parties were almost wholly united, the Democrats won because of superior
demographics.
What is
interesting is that Republican elites currently seem more divided than ever
over Trump. Trump’s comments attacking
the judge in his fraud case have given pause to many and provoked an
un-endorsement from one U.S. Senator. More problems are to come. So far all of
this bad news is having little effect on Republican voters who seem ready to
roll with it all but that could change if the outrages add up.
On the
Democratic side, elites have been with Clinton from the beginning and the small
number who have been with Sanders are unwilling to overturn the winner of the
pledged delegates. As the Democratic process wraps up this week, we should see a
turn toward unity fairly quickly. The
question is whether Democratic voters, a substantial number of whom rejected
the presumptive nominee, will go the way of their elites. That seems the only
major uncertainty that keeps this from being a fairly predictable race.
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