With the exception of D.C. next
week, we have reached the end of the Democratic primary process. California has
turned into a very interesting race as polling shows a quite close contest. If
enough younger people turn out, Sanders may in fact win. We don’t think that
will happen but would not be surprised if it did. Regardless, the final California
results will be tallied long after Clinton clinches the majority of delegates. At
this point, Clinton is at most 50 delegates away from a majority of delegates, which
she gets in New Jersey at 8 p.m. (The AP has already called it for her based on
its reporting of super delegates’ commitments.) We think Clinton will win
California, New Jersey, and New Mexico. We think Sanders will win Montana and
North Dakota. South Dakota is our greatest puzzle. We think Sanders wins, but we
are not remotely sure. Full delegate allocations follow.
Total: Clinton 365 Sanders 329
California
Total: Clinton 248 Sanders 227
Delegate Allocation
|
Clinton
|
Sanders
|
CA AL
|
55
|
50
|
CA PLEO
|
28
|
25
|
CA 1
|
3
|
3
|
CA 2
|
4
|
4
|
CA 3
|
3
|
3
|
CA 4
|
3
|
3
|
CA 5
|
3
|
4
|
CA 6
|
3
|
3
|
CA 7
|
3
|
3
|
CA 8
|
2
|
3
|
CA 9
|
3
|
3
|
CA 10
|
3
|
2
|
CA 11
|
3
|
4
|
CA 12
|
4
|
5
|
CA 13
|
3
|
5
|
CA 14
|
3
|
4
|
CA 15
|
3
|
4
|
CA 16
|
3
|
2
|
CA 17
|
3
|
3
|
CA 18
|
4
|
4
|
CA 19
|
3
|
3
|
CA 20
|
3
|
3
|
CA 21
|
2
|
2
|
CA 22
|
3
|
2
|
CA 23
|
3
|
2
|
CA 24
|
3
|
3
|
CA 25
|
3
|
2
|
CA 26
|
3
|
3
|
CA 27
|
3
|
3
|
CA 28
|
4
|
3
|
CA 29
|
3
|
2
|
CA 30
|
4
|
3
|
CA 31
|
3
|
2
|
CA 32
|
3
|
3
|
CA 33
|
4
|
3
|
CA 34
|
3
|
2
|
CA 35
|
3
|
2
|
CA 36
|
2
|
3
|
CA 37
|
4
|
3
|
CA 38
|
3
|
3
|
CA 39
|
3
|
3
|
CA 40
|
3
|
2
|
CA 41
|
3
|
2
|
CA 42
|
3
|
2
|
CA 43
|
4
|
2
|
CA 44
|
3
|
3
|
CA 45
|
3
|
3
|
CA 46
|
3
|
2
|
CA 47
|
3
|
3
|
CA 48
|
3
|
3
|
CA 49
|
3
|
3
|
CA 50
|
3
|
2
|
CA 51
|
3
|
2
|
CA 52
|
3
|
3
|
CA 53
|
4
|
3
|
Montana
Total: Sanders 12 Clinton 9
Delegate Allocation
|
Sanders
|
Clinton
|
MT AL
|
2
|
2
|
MT PLEO
|
1
|
1
|
MT Eastern
|
4
|
3
|
MT Western
|
5
|
3
|
New
Jersey
Total: Clinton 73 Sanders 53
NJ Delegate allocation
|
Clinton
|
Sanders
|
NJ AL
|
16
|
12
|
NJ PLEO
|
8
|
6
|
NJ DD 1
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 2
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 3
|
3
|
2
|
NJ DD 4
|
3
|
2
|
NJ DD 5
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 6
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 7
|
2
|
1
|
NJ DD 8
|
3
|
2
|
NJ DD 9
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 10
|
3
|
1
|
NJ DD 11
|
3
|
2
|
NJ DD 12
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 13
|
2
|
1
|
NJ DD 14
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 15
|
3
|
2
|
NJ DD 16
|
3
|
1
|
NJ DD 17
|
3
|
1
|
NJ DD 18
|
3
|
2
|
NJ DD 19
|
2
|
2
|
NJ DD 20
|
2
|
2
|
New Mexico
Total: Clinton 19 Sanders 15
Delegate Allocation
|
Clinton
|
Sanders
|
NM AL
|
4
|
3
|
NM PLEO
|
2
|
2
|
NM 1
|
5
|
3
|
NM 2
|
4
|
3
|
NM 3
|
4
|
4
|
North
Dakota
Total:
Sanders 12 Clinton 6
Delegate Allocation
|
Sanders
|
Clinton
|
ND AL
|
3
|
1
|
ND PLEO
|
1
|
1
|
ND 1
|
8
|
4
|
12
|
6
|
South
Dakota
Total:
Sanders 10 Clinton 10
Delegate Allocation
|
Sanders
|
Clinton
|
SD AL
|
2
|
2
|
SD PLEO
|
1
|
1
|
SD 1
|
7
|
7
|
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