We got a
very surprising result from across the pond last night. We don’t claim any
special knowledge of British politics or any particular insight into how the
E.U. will work. Yet, it seems a nationalism that borders on tribalism was the
main force at work in the E.U. referendum. The electorate statement seems to be:
“We the British don’t need to be part of something bigger than ourselves. We
can handle our own affairs.” The clear desire to keep out immigrants is also built
into this own affairs business. The tribalism involved is the key point.
This tribalism
initially seems like good news for Donald Trump and in some ways it is.
American white nationalism may keep Trump closer than the structure of his
campaign would otherwise allow. The difference is that tribalism in the United
States cuts both ways. Non-whites in the U.S., who represent more than double
the number of non-white voters in the UK, have a tribal identity as much as
white nationalists do. This tribe, or more accurately tribes, quite rightly
sees Trump as an absolute mortal enemy. There could be turnout issues, but there
is no desire for Trump among non-whites.
The UK
referendum also did not have the same partisan edge that the election here has.
Surveys consistently show that your partisan affiliation colors how you see
events. Although the stock market’s performance is a fact, for example, Republicans
perceive the market as doing worse than its actual performance because that
fits their worldview.
If people do
end up retreating to their respective camps, it will keep the race close but it
also makes it very hard for Trump to win because his camp is simply smaller. It
is not smaller by much, which explains Republican gains in midterms. Given the
small difference, it does not take much turmoil on one side for the other side
to win. But the tribal nature of elections makes winning nationally harder, not
easier for Republicans.
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