Republicans
Ted Cruz has a 55% to win the Iowa Caucus. Donald Trump has a 40% chance to win the Iowa Caucus. The rest of the field has a 5% chance, and that might even be a touch too high.
Predicted percentage for each candidate: Cruz 32% Trump 28% Rubio 13% Carson 9% Bush 4% Paul 4% Huckabee 3% Kasich 2% Christie 2% Fiorina 2% Santorum 1%
The basic rationale:
This may be the year that polling based models just completely collapse because we are frankly seeing results that are all over the map. If there is one thing to remember about Iowa Republican caucuses, it is that the chosen candidate of the Christian Right should not be overly trifled with. In 2008 Mike Huckabee won the Iowa Caucus, and on caucus night performed nearly 5 points over his polling average. In 2012, Rick Santorum beat his polling average by 8.3%. In the 2010 gubernatorial primary Iowa’s premiere poll from Ann Selzer missed the closeness of the race between Christian Conservative Bob Vander Plaats and establishment favorite, former and now again Governor Terry Branstad. Selzer predicted a 28 percentage point Branstad lead, but he won by a little less than 10%. Predicting the Christian Right candidate will beat the spread is always a good bet. Cruz also for the first time has united the powerhouses Steve King and Bob Vander Plaats. Losing for the two of them would be completely unacceptable. While Trump’s strategy of bringing in new caucus goers will make things close, in the end it just seems that victory would be possible for Trump f we had a primary but a caucus requires a level of organization that will just be a bit much for his team. For the rest of the prediction -- the Establishment candidates are combining for just above 20% , which is mostly in line with what Romney got in 2008 and 2012. Huckabee gets about the same as Bachmann from 2012. Paul holds about 25% of his father’s supporters [his fall has been amazing] Carly gets a few votes for being a woman, and Santorum has to rue the fact he won here a year ago and saw it stolen by Karl Rove. Ted Cruz by a nose.
Democrats
Odds on winner: Hillary Clinton 60% Bernie Sanders 40%
Vote Percentages: 54% Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders 46%
Basic Rationale:
Everyone seems to be incredibly hyped over one CNN Poll that showed a Sanders lead. However the polling average still shows Hillary Clinton up by 6.4%. What is more, the CNN Poll showed Hillary Clinton with an 18 point win with previous caucus goers, who constitute the most likely caucus goers this year. Another confusing thing about the process is geographic distribution. Unlike in 2008 when Senator Obama had large parts of the Democratic regulars, Hillary Clinton has an almost monopoly with Democratic regulars. While that does not in and of itself guarantee much, it definitely helps with geographic distribution. Since all delegates are elected based on precinct level data, there would seem to be some precincts in which Sanders simply has more people than he needs and in some precincts where he may not be able to keep pace with Clinton. There is a three-part caveat. The Sanders campaign leads the energy sweepstakes. Iowa caucus goers do lean to the left. And no one knows what O’Malley supporters and O’Malley himself will do, Polling suggests O’Malley is unlikely to get to threshold [15%] almost anywhere. So his caucus goers who are left with making a second choice or going home could prove to be decisive. Such people are often influenced by what their organization says. Senator Sanders is therefore alive in Iowa but has a harder climb than is generally realized.
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