Yesterday, we discussed how everything seems to be going Trump’s way. That remains true. His quick-win strategy to take both Iowa and New Hampshire could prove correct and put Trump on a path to a remarkable and easy victory over a field of also-rans. But Trump’s new ad against Ted Cruz and his apparent all-in on Iowa strategy appears to be something of a miscalculation.
What has gotten Donald Trump so fast so far, however, is his domination of the media attention combined with a split field. Being able to command 35% of the vote at this moment makes Trump look and feel dominate. But 35% is still a ways from the 50% plus 1 you need to be certain of victory. The split field has been incredibly important to him, nowhere more so than in the early states.
It seems unlikely that Trump could win either Iowa or New Hampshire in a one-on-one contest against the number two contender. At the moment, that is unlikely to matter as lots of candidates are continuing to duke it out hard in both states. The percentage that Trump currently holds, or even two thirds of that, will put him in the top two in New Hampshire and Iowa, and will almost certainly win him New Hampshire.
So far the opposition to Trump continues to be scattered, fragmented and weak. The Trump campaign should be focusing on the ways to keep the opposition in such a state. So far Ted Cruz’s strong position has been a key way to accomplish that. Cruz has created a huge split within the Republican party. It is important to remember that white evangelicals Christians accounted for more than 40% of Mitt Romney’s vote total. They usually make up at least 50% of the Republican primary electorate. Most of their most prominent leaders have endorsed Cruz. Although Trump is currently leading with this voting block, there is a real risk that they will eventually listen to their leaders.
The key danger for Trump at the moment is not defeat by Cruz; it is that a candidate can successfully unite both the “Christian” part of the party and the more Establishment part of the party against him. Ted Cruz is woefully unprepared to do that because he is hated by the Establishment. So for Trump’s purposes, Cruz is a perfect parking place for the Christian leadership. It makes it much less likely that a unified candidate will appear.
Although it may seem counterintuitive, a strongish Cruz helps Trump. A Cruz win in Iowa makes him a contender and could crowd out everyone else. If Cruz is beaten too early, it could boost another candidate, which is a greater danger.
There are also considerations of delegate math. If Cruz gets to 20% across the South, he’ll earn some delegates, some of which would otherwise go to Trump, but some of which will come from the Establishment candidates. If the race comes down to the convention, Trump would rather have Cruz delegates in the hall than, say, Rubio ones. Trump would have a better chance of picking off Cruz delegates than more establishment ones.
The initial whacking of Cruz therefore is good for Trump (you don’t want him too strong) but the negative ad probably goes too far. So is splitting the Robertson family of Duck Dynasty fame. The father endorsed Cruz and then Trump responded with an endorsement from the son, thereby embarrassing Cruz and the father.
The narrative emerging from the new polls also present a possible danger for Trump. There is no shame in losing to Cruz in Iowa; a top two finish in a caucus is remarkable for someone so new to the party. But the expectation of victory could in theory knock The Donald off his game if he comes in second. A second-place finish probably would not be enough to lead Trump to lose in New Hampshire, but might be enough to let doubt seep in.
It is often easier to see the game as one that can be won and won early, but that is a classic multi-candidate field dynamic mistake. Trump has a great hand that may be so strong he can’t lose. But in the last 24 hours, he seems to be misplaying it.
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