Sanders downplays chance to win the nomination.

With five days to go until Iowa, it’s not unusual for candidates to play the expectations game.  So maybe that’s what Sen. Sanders is doing. More likely, however, this article shows Sanders may not understand the challenge he faces in winning the Democratic nomination. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/sanders-its-a-mythology-that-i-need-to-win-iowa_us_56a7e4a2e4b04936c0e89143 

There’s almost no way for Sanders to construct a nomination victory that doesn’t begin with an Iowa victory. Although we faulted the Cook Political Report’s benchmarks for being too positive toward Establishments Republican candidates, the report is spot-on  in showing the incredibly difficult path for Sanders.  http://cookpolitical.com/story/9179. 

Iowa is the perfect state to demonstrate his problems. According to Cook’s math, Sanders would need to win 31 of 44 delegates up for grabs during the Feb 1^st caucus, just to get to a tie with Clinton. 

If the Sanders campaign is admitting that it might not even win in Iowa, it owes it to supporters to give some sense of when and where the campaign can get back on pace. This becomes all the more dangerous for the Sanders campaign because of the heavily minority particularly African American territory, he heads into on March 1^st.  Because of proportionality, once a deficit is built, even a small one, it is very difficult to overcome.  

The problem is compounded by the fact that in the history of Democratic nomination contests, except when an African American was running, African American voters have always rallied to the candidate of the Democratic establishment. This is true even in non-presidential races.  

The trick for Sanders is to win so that he seems like the establishment candidate,  even if he’s not – given all Clinton’s endorsements among other reasons. A loss in Iowa would foreclose the possibility of Sanders gaining support by looking like a winner. Thus no matter what happens in New Hampshire, without an Iowa victory, Sanders would not be able to dislodge Clinton’s 67-28% lead among non-white voters in the most recent ABC/Washington Post poll. 

Iowa is simply too White to lose for Sanders. Thus his downplaying of a loss there indicates an unsustainable strategy for victory. Not only is it too white, but caucuses are entirely an indication of passion, which was why Obama wrung up huge margins in caucuses states in 2008. To lose the first one is a terrible sign for what Sanders needs to win by in Colorado and Minnesota on March 1st. Sanders has to win Iowa.