All Hail the Conquering Trump

I will preview the first two contests (Iowa, New Hampshire) this coming weekend. There is still enough time left for this race to take a different turn. But the news today, with just 10 days from the Iowa Caucus, seems to show a Donald Trump assent that, while it could still be derailed, seems to be gaining strength. An eye on multi candidate field dynamics also shows that not only is Trump picking up steam but, as importantly, the only other two candidates cracking double digits in national polling seem to be losing it. This is as all candidates not named Trump continue to snipe at each other.  

First, in national polling, Trump is doing remarkably in a 12-person race with an RCP average of 34.5%. The range of his support varies between 36% and 33%, thus revealing no outlier or dissenting polls. His two main challengers, Senators Cruz and Rubio, sit at 18.8% and 11.6% with no appreciable progress for either. State polls all show the same pattern: Trump has large leads in all the states with Cruz always in second and Rubio almost always in third. 

Thanks to Public Policy Polling in North Carolina, we have some sense of how both a two-way and a three-way race involving these three candidates would go with. Trump dominates in the three-way race and wins one-on- one matches by up to 8 points over Cruz and 15 points over Rubio. Trump also had huge leads posted Florida, Georgia, and Arizona.  

In the two early states, Trump is getting almost exactly what he wants as well. With 10 days to go, he is battling for first with Senator Cruz, but no candidate is even in competition to pass Trump for second. Thus, Trump seems to be assured a top two finish in Iowa. In New Hampshire, Trump leads over the entire field by as much as 20%, with the closet challenger behind by 7%. The average deficit is around 17%. The attacks all the other candidates are making against one another are taking an incredible toll. 

Meanwhile, Trump has also been gaining endorsements, and not just the obviously high profile Sarah Palin. The elected treasurer of the State of Arizona endorsed Trump. Even Nate Silver who has been the leader in the anti-Trump team of pundits, is coming around. 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/

Again, there still may be time to turn this all around. But for the moment and with very few moments left: All hail the conquering Trump.