So tomorrow we will have our final Iowa prediction. Yet while we waited for the most recent Des Moines Register Poll, the major news item of the day was
the alleged surge of Senator Marco Rubio.
The most recent poll, however, shows that in fact Marco Rubio has no momentum. In fact the poll shows him slightly losing a bit of ground. The Rubio surge is not in fact a story about what is actually happening in Iowa. It is instead a story about what happens when journalists begin to start wanting a new story or a result. Here is a prime example of this kind of story, or this.
The “believing is seeing” phenomenon is something to be on alert for when the Media is covering rightwing challengers. In 2010 U.S. House member Michael Castle was trailing in the polls in the race for U.S. Senate in Delaware and was ultimately defeated by rightwinger Christine O’Donnell by six points. If you don’t feel like reading the story the point is, reporters spoke to Castle supporters who thought he was going to win. Then they predicted he was going to win even though that was completely wrong. They led with this story on primary day. It’s crucial to stay vigilant watching for such puffery because so much of the national press does not want to believe in the success of the right. They will deny its existence and write stories to back that up. So be careful out there.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
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About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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