Republicans:
Odds: Donald Trump 90%, field 10%
Percentages: Donald Trump 30% Cruz 15% Rubio 13% Kasich 12% Bush 10% Christie 7% Paul 5% Carson 5% Carly 3%
Rationale:
Donald Trump is simply too far ahead for anyone to catch, and the establishment lane, which seems to be garnering roughly 42%, is no closer to deciding on one candidate here than we observed a few months ago. This divide has left Trump on track to win by almost 2-1 over his nearest competitor. With this set of polling it is entirely possible Trump could lose a third of his support and still win. As for the others, Senator Cruz is holding down the Christian Right solidly. It is a small lane in New Hampshire but it is bigger than having to split the establishment lane four ways. Senator Rubio should gain from his third in Iowa and in national polling to hold third here. Governor Kasich has been running the most disciplined campaign, working very hard in the Jon Huntsman lane. Given newspaper endorsements, he seems best positioned of the Governors. Jeb Bush has positioned himself as Trump’s biggest enemy which is useful to him. Christie has no message for the field and falls back; everyone else trails badly.
Democrats:
Odds: Bernie Sanders 80% Hillary Clinton 20%
Percentages: Bernie Sanders 54% Hillary Clinton 44% Field 2%
Rationale:
The New Hampshire electorate is just tailor made for Bernie Sanders, who is also from a neighboring state. There is simply no reason to disbelieve the public polling. What people tend to forget is that while Hillary won here in 2008, she did so with only 39% of the vote. She will exceed that this year, but Sanders will still win because New Hampshire Democrats lean left and are anti-establishment. This will not matter that much as we get to later contests, but it will give the Sanders movement something to crow about. The caveat is that an Iowa win for Hillary might create a sense of momentum which may discourage Bernie supporters, particularly independents who now will vote on the R side where it might do more good from their perspective. Still it’s a steep Hill.
What I find really interesting in the NH GOP polling is the 4 of them right on the bubble of the 15% threshold. A few points different , Trump could get all the delegates or less than half.
ReplyDeleteOn your last paragraph, I think that dynamic is huge, but likely could be the other way round: i always think about that week I spent in NH for Obama I the 2008 primary, the most common undecideds I would find were people split between Obama and McCain (generally older and male), and I think in the end, the Demcratic race seemed a lock for Obama, so those independents voted for McCain to try to stop Romney. I think there is a similar but obviously different population of older male populist Trump / Sanders supporters that could swing the result.