In the run up to tonight’s debate and amidst the general sense of a tightening race, it is important to drill down to what is really happening and what would be required for the nomination to actually flip hands.
The rise of Bernie Sanders is as interesting a story in many ways as is that of Donald Trump, and for Progressives far more hopeful.
However those who believe that history is about to repeat itself are missing two key factors from 2008. 1. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama basically tied and 2. Barack Obama, while doing well across the board, relied heavily on overwhelming support from African Americans to win.
What this means is that for Bernie Sanders to win he almost has to persuade voters who chose Clinton last time to choose him in 2016. There is almost no math that exists that allows for Sanders to win without taking a sizable junk of Clinton’s 2008 supporters. While there is perhaps some evidence of such conversions with an individual or two, as a general matter we are not yet seeing many core defections. Defections are the key thing to watch for.
Yet this saving grace for the Clinton campaign in the overall race is not a saving grace in the early states. In Iowa in 2008, Hillary Clinton only received 30% of the Iowa Caucus vote. While New Hampshire is touted as a strong-hold for Hillary based on 2008, that is not so much the case. Hillary won the Granite state receiving 39% to Obama’s 36.4%. But the large part of the balance went to Senator Edwards, who ran on similar if less aggressive messaging as what we now see from Senator Sanders. Thus to some degree the first two contests are two of the worst states on the calendar for Hillary. So Sanders can very easily get some early momentum by earning votes from non-Hillary people. But without Hillary people from 2008 he can’t win. And that’s even before you build in the structural super delegate problem, which provides Hillary yet another important cushion.
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The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
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About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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