Polls show Republican Establishment candidates trailing Romney’s 2012 totals, yet evidence suggests they must outperform him to win.

         Throughout Washington and the political chattering classes many if not most observers still believe the Republican Establishment will rise again.  That core belief is built heavily into the 538 poll plus model that credits members of that Establishment with the power to boost (via endorsement points) the odds of candidates in the club.

 However when one digs into the math one begins to see just how hard it will be for the Establishment to get the delegates necessary to pick a nominee of its choosing. [For our purposes the Establishment is the Governors plus Rubio on the main stage tonight]  

              Those seeking to do your own math should review The Cook Political Report, an absolutely fantastic resource for setting benchmarks from which you can draw conclusions. 

http://cookpolitical.com/story/9154

But for those lacking time here are the two main data points standing in the Establishment’s way.

1.       Mitt Romney, last cycle’s only Republican Establishment candidate, struggled in some of the very places early state contests are being held this year.

2.       The current establishment candidates are not even running as strongly as Mitt Romney. 

Here are the comparable poll numbers.

          In Iowa in 2012 Mitt received basically 25% of all votes.  In the current RCP average for Iowa, Republican Establishment candidates are polling at 23.5%.  Not a large deficit, but not a good sign for the Establishment.

            In New Hampshire the presence of Jon Huntsman, who ended up being a one state Republican establishment candidate, clouds things a bit, but the message is the same.  In 2012, Romney and Huntsman combined for 56% of the Republican primary vote. Today’s  Establishment candidates are only pulling in only 43% combined. 

                 At this point (three weeks pre-Iowa caucus) in the National polling Mitt Romney was at about 25% or so.  The Republican Establishment is currently polling at 21.  These numbers are not far behind, but behind is a problem.  

Getting to the Romney level or even slightly exceeding it is clearly an attainable goal. The challenge is that a great deal of improvement is required.   Going through every state would be very time consuming. One state serves as a perfect illustration.  On March 1^st Georgia goes to the polls. It exemplifies the problem the Republican Establishment faces. In 2012 Mitt Romney received only 28% of the Georgia vote. That is a decent benchmark for the Establishment.  [Yes Georgia was Gingrich’s home state, but Romney’s numbers in Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee were comparable.]   A huge problem for the Establishment relates to Multi-Candidate field dynamics.  The establishment might simply not have successfully winnowed their candidates down in time for Georgia. [Absentee voting has already started]. This is where the rules become quite harsh. Georgia delegates are awarded based on the voting on two bases. The statewide vote decides the at large delegates, and the congressional districts select congressional district delegates. The at large is proportional with two exceptions. A candidate needs to reach 20% of the vote, which means at most four candidates can win at large delegates and three is more likely. There is also a 50% winner take all provision, but that is unlikely to come into effect.  

The district level is even more brutal. Each district gets three delegates. The winner in each district receives two delegates and the runner up gets 1. Everyone else is out of luck [unless someone get 50% in which case they get all three].  What this system meant for Mitt Romney was that he was able to win 21 delegates in Georgia, whereas the Cook projected need for the Establishment in Georgia is 34.

What makes matters worse for the Establishment is that Romney got about as lucky a spilt in Georgia as possible.  Remember that 20% rule. Santorum was under it by less than .5 at 19.55%, but he was thus completely shut out of at large delegates giving Romney an at large windfall.  Gingrich was also very close to 50% in which case he would have gotten all the delegates as well.  Without Santorum, it is likely Gingrich would have taken nearly all the delegates. If instead there was a slightly stronger Santorum, Romney would have lost a few more second place district delegates and would not have gotten a bump from the at large.  Given the Cruz-Trump battle at the moment, a Georgia that shuts the Establishment out entirely looks more likely than a Georgia in which the Establishment finds its way to the 34 delegates that Cook says it needs.  There are similar effects across the country in lots of states, and the benchmarks are impossible to reach in quite a few places with few chances for corresponding gains.  The establishment may yet rise, but the benchmarks needed are much harder to reach than is generally realized.