Republicans
Odds Cruz 52% Trump 48%
Percentages: Cruz 29%
Trump 28% Rubio 19% Carson 7 % Paul 6% Bush 3% Christie 3% Huckabee 2% Fiorina
1% Kasich 1% Santorum 1%
Rationale.
This is
an incredibly close call, which really comes down to a coin flip. The public
polling shows Donald Trump winning and expanding the electorate, and that is
impressive. He is also doing well enough
with the traditional electorate that he could win even without a flood of
newcomers. However in the end a combination of three factors hold promise to do
him in. 1. His overall favorables amongst Iowa Republicans weigh in at the
meager plus 3 (49 approve/46 disapprove).
2. It is now clear to all in Iowa that only a vote for Cruz offers a
chance at stopping Trump, so those who view Trump unfavorably may allow Cruz to
gain. 3. It will be harder for Trump to get out his supporters than it will be
for Cruz, whose supporters were all likely at Church this morning. The history of Christian candidates beating
the polls, which was highlighted in a recent post, still matters and the slight
collapse of other candidates suggest Cruz’s rise will be just enough. It should
be remarkably close, and Trump has better odds to achieve a win with a
meaningful margin, but Cruz is still the slightest of favorites to win by a
nose.
Democrats
Odds Clinton 70% Sanders 30%
Percentages Clinton 53% to Sanders 47%
The
Sanders campaign has had an impressive ride and run a remarkable race. It is entirely possible that geographic distribution
of voters will lead to a splitting of the National Convention delegates. Yet overall this very much remains Clinton’s
race to lose at the state level delegate race. Clinton has regained the polling
momentum. Hers is a small but durable
lead. Clinton is taking older voters and Sanders is taking younger voters. That is good for Clinton on two key
fronts. Older voters are more spread out
throughout the state, which, because of how delegates are awarded, provides a
Clinton advantage. Older voters more
reliably turn out than younger voters. These demographics, the overall polling lead, and Clinton’s lead with
Democrats as opposed to independents gives Clinton a clear edge.
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