Our pesky friend `delegate math’ returns.

Without a doubt, tonight’s Iowa results will be watched for every minute difference among the candidates. For the public and the press, there is a difference between “winning” and “losing” that will matter a great deal in terms of the race’s narrative. But when it comes to the delegate math that will decide who will be the nominee, a win is not always a win. We will jump into the Rs delegate math at some point in the future, as it has an incredible number of twist and turns with nearly every contest having some different variation. Democratic rules, which are much simpler, are the focus for today.

Delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August are chosen based on the results in each Congressional district as well as by the statewide totals that are divided between two different kinds of delegates. (Some states have minor variation but Iowa is not one of them so we’ll leave that for another day.)

                Iowa has four Congressional districts. Therefore the national delegates will be decided based on five separate results, each congressional district’s tally, and a statewide total divided into two types of delegates. That means there will be six batches of delegates. Caucus goers tonight will not be picking those delegates directly. What is reported caucus night is county level delegates who go the county caucus, which then elects delegates to the state convention that then elects delegates to the national convention. So the real trick tonight is not determining who won at a county-wide level, but figuring out what those results will mean with respect to delegates to the national convention. Although these rules are boring and confusing, the Obama campaign’s understanding of them, more than any other factor, explains why he was able to defeat Hillary Clinton in 2008.

What is amazing about tonight’s results is that the Democratic race in Iowa is likely so close that victory or defeat at the country delegate level is more likely than not completely irrelevant from a perspective of national convention delegates. The Iowa 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd congressional district each awards eight delegates. A candidate has to receive 56.25% of the vote in the counties to be entitled to a 5-3 split of the delegates as opposed to a 4-4 split. Here’s the math: 5/8 is 62.5%, 4/8 is 50%. To claim the extra delegate, the candidate has to be closer to 62.5% than to 50%, which is 56.25%. Otherwise, the candidates split the delegates evenly. The 4^th district has six delegates, which means a candidate needs 58.33% to avoid an even split.

At the state level, there are two buckets of delegates both allocated by the statewide total. One, the “Party Leaders/Elected Officials” bucket, has six delegates that would again require 58.33% to deserve a 4-2 split. The “At Large” bucket is worth 10 delegates, which would require 55% of delegates in order to win an extra delegate. Based on the polling, neither candidate is anywhere near these bench marks. Without big wins on either side, we are looking at an Iowa National convention delegation that will be evenly split between Sanders and Clinton people. If a candidate gets to one of these bench marks in a congressional district, he or she could even “lose the caucus “ in the sense of getting fewer county level delegates but still win the national delegate race in Iowa -- as Obama did in winning Nevada in 2008. 

There is far more to come on this subject as we enter an intense six-week stretch of campaign activity. For now, just remember on the Democratic side, barring a blowout, it is a tie.