Nevada Democratic Caucus
Odds Clinton 55% Sanders 45%
Margin Clinton 52% Sanders 48%
Delegates 19-16 Clinton
This is an exceptionally difficult call. Were this the
Nevada primary, Clinton would be about a 10-point favorite based on what we are
seeing nationally. Because caucuses have such lower turnouts and because lower
turnout tends to benefit those with energy and passion it’s much harder to
predict.
In 2008, this led to a technical Clinton victory at the
state level but an Obama victory at the delegate level. The 2nd
district had been split into three parts, two of which had an odd number of
delegates. Everything else broke evenly. So Obama won district level delegates by
two, lost the statewide delegates by one and thus won by a single delegate.
The addition of a fourth Congressional district in Nevada
ended the 2nd district split. There are now four districts. As our
delegate math showed, in such a close race each candidate can be very confident
of receiving 16 delegates. The battle is over the last three delegates. Polling
such as there is gives Clinton an average lead of 3.5%. However that is
basically just the Gravis poll, which gives her a six-point lead. It should be
taken with a grain of salt because that polling firm found Clinton was 11 points
ahead in the run-up to Iowa.
The fact Clinton has been on the ground longer leads us to
believe she will gut it out. Even if she loses statewide, she would seem to be more
likely to win the 1st congressional district with one delegate. That
would potentially mitigate a statewide loss to just one delegate. So I’m going
to say Clinton will win close but so close a flip would be not out of the
question.
South Carolina Republican Primary
Odds Trump 80% Cruz 9% Rubio 11%
Margin: Trump 31% Cruz 23% Rubio 22% Bush 10% Kasich 8 %
Carson 6%
Delegates Trump 50
Donald Trump appears to be leading here and the polling average
is still right in line with New Hampshire results. A small number of late
breaking trends, however, suggest this may be closer than it might otherwise
seem. Trump leads but a surprise upset is more possible than it looked even seven
or eight hours ago.
The battle for second place here is fierce between Cruz and
Rubio. Both have a good story for why he might come in second or even win. Cruz
is stronger with evangelical Christians who outperformed in Iowa, giving him a
win. During the campaign so far, his ability to target the right voters with
the right message has been completely on point. Cruz is second in the average,
though only by less than a point.
Rubio, on the other hand, has a gust of wind that seems stronger
than Cruz’s. He has recently been endorsed by the Governor of the State, As
important, the Rubio campaign could be a more natural home for supporters of
either Governor Bush or Governor Kasich who see the writing on the wall.
In the end in Iowa, Bush, Kasich and Christie all
considerably underperformed their already poor polling results. The caveat is
that those campaigns in Iowa seemed moribund, whereas Kasich, after his New
Hampshire finish, and Bush, with his brother showing up, have more signs of
life in South Carolina. Kasich and Bush need to combine for around 20% of the
vote (we have it at 18%] to keep Rubio in third. Lower than that and Rubio may be poised to make
up the ground for second.
Even though we think he’ll come in third, Rubio is more
likely than Cruz to catch Trump for a surprise win. Cruz has his challenges
with Carson continuing to poll at 7% (6% predicted here). The earlier
assumption was that Cruz and Carson share a similar base so if Carson dropped
out, his voters would migrate to Cruz. The Iowa feud over Cruz supporters
claiming Carson had left the race put an end to that alignment and is a big
problem for Cruz going forward.
Rubio also has a slight advantage in terms of polling momentum.
He appears to be gaining in polls from yesterday and today although they are
quite spotty. This race comes down to
whether you believe slightly more recent polling, or polling by better
companies. We have chosen the better companies, particularly because we like
the Cruz organization. But boy is it close.
Earlier in the week a Bush third in South Carolina seemed
possible but newer polling has shut the door on that. Fourth seems more likely
and possibly be enough to end his campaign.
For Kasich, edging out Bush would be a shot in the arm. He’s
mostly hoping for chaos for everyone not named Trump. Kasich probably won’t get
past Bush but doing quasi-respectably and the end of Bush is the story for him.
Carson’s likely sixth place finish would end a sane campaign
but his profit-driven racket shows no signs of ending The campaign raised $54
million through December, which has been spent primarily on raising money.
This is where we are with fewer than 24 hours until polls
close. The battle for second is fierce. Trump should win but it is closer than we
thought even one day ago.
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