With only eight days until South Carolina votes, that primary looms exceptionally large. On the Republican side, we see it as a battle between three major ideas each of which represents a core ideology of South Carolina voters. They are: “God,” “Country” and “Country.” Let us explain.
The “God” idea is represented by rightwing evangelicals who support Ted Cruz. They were the key to his success in Iowa and his third place showing in New Hampshire. The kingdom of God, represented by James Dobson et al., has Ted Cruz’s back, and it is a powerful force.
“Country” is American patriotism as expressed by those who tend to support Jeb Bush. They favor a steady hand who will keep us safe through a strong military. That view of “Country” is the focus of the George W. Bush ad for his brother. It will clearly be W’s theme when he campaigns for Jeb in South Carolina on Monday.
But South Carolina also has another idea of “Country,” that of the lost cause and racial supremacy. Donald Trump is the champion of this “Country.” Trump is of course not going around waving the Confederate battle flag. He doesn’t have to. His language about Muslims, Hispanics and support for police makes this message abundantly clear. His previous foray into Birtherism also gives him all the racist credibility that he needs. His assault on “political correctness” has the same effect. Here’s another, subtler example. In his riff on the evils of trade, Germany never kills us on trade, England never kills us on trade. Only non-white countries, such as Mexico and China do, even though our trade deficit with Germany is bigger than our trade deficit with Mexico.
For a great many South Carolinians all three ideas hold incredible sway. In 2012, about two-thirds of South Carolina Republican primary voters were white evangelicals Christians. South Carolina also has a large number of veterans. And, seventy percent of South Carolina Republicans think the Confederate flag is a source of pride. After the Charleston shooting, only 50% of Republicans wanted the flag removed from statehouse grounds.
Clearly there is lots of overlap among those voting for God, Country and Country. The question in South Carolina is which idea at the moment is the most powerful.
Oddly, we might be able to look to Marco Rubio for the answer. His robot moment was to repeat over and over again that he understands President Obama’s plot to destroy America. He knows Obama is not inept, he’s evil. He insisted on stressing — to the point of foolishness — that he gets Republicans’ hatred of the President.
The focus-grouped candidate’s programming points to why Trump might have the better of the emotional pull at the moment. Do Republicans hate Obama because he is insufficiently Christian? Yes, but is he any less Christian than Bill Clinton? Do they hate him because he weakened the military? Sure, but he hasn’t really, and in fact his performance as commander and chief is hard to fault, with all that killing of Osama and launching of drones. Or do they hate him because he represents a bold threat to white supremacy in America that cannot be denied?
Interestingly, George W. Bush’s presidency also points to the ascendency of the Lost Cause Country. His military misadventure in Iraq damaged the pure patriotism brand. And Bush only slowed, but could not stop, the losses in the culture war, as evidenced by the nationwide acceptance of gay marriage.
Only the promise of an America made great again by deporting aliens and banning Muslims seems likely to work because it has not failed. As we saw, theses ideas were popular with New Hampshire voters: 41% favor deportations and 65% back the temporary Muslim ban.
Trump also can co-opt relatively easily messages on patriotism (`look how much money I raised for the vets’) and on Christianity, though less so (although Jerry Falwell Jr.’s endorsement helps and he did win the evangelical vote in New Hampshire by a bit).
For reasons of temperament and believability and, in some cases, ethnicity no other Republican candidate can compete with Trump in `Lost Cause’ territory.
Eight days is a life time and things can change rapidly. But that ideological core is what gives Donald Trump such strength in such a crowded field.
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