A First Take on the Republican Delegate Math for March 1st

                Here’s a quick take on the Republican delegate math as we approach Super Tuesday. This is a rough estimate that will be adjusted as more polls come in.

                Because Republican rules rely so much on thresholds, which requires getting between 15% or 20% in a particular state to receive any delegates, the results can change a lot depending on whether candidates reach that level. We mostly think that Trump, Cruz and Rubio are all likely to get to those thresholds in all the March 1^st states. But in a number of states it is very close and missing a threshold can cost someone up to 10 delegates. Missing a bunch of them can be fatal. Rubio is at risk of missing in Texas. Cruz is at risk in Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia.

As it stands now Trump would win 273 Delegates, Cruz would win 185 (nearly half in Texas), Rubio would win 135, Kasich would grab 16 and Carson would take 5.  We haven’t included Colorado’s 37 delegates. The state’s process is something of a black box because its caucus will elect delegates who will elect delegates, who will elect the national convention delegates. The first stage of delegates will decide the delegates to the national convention but without it being revealed who the delegates are for. That leaves those 37 delegates a wild card. Still, this gives a rough idea of what we are looking at.

Monday night we will have final, final numbers.