The most recent South Carolina poll has Donald Trump with a commanding 36.3% of the
vote as opposed to 19.6% for Ted Cruz, 14.6% for Marco Rubio, 10.9% for Jeb
Bush, and 8.7% for John Kasich. As we were writing, we saw another poll that
basically confirmed this assessment. Bush and Rubio flipped places but the
margin between them shrank to almost nothing.
By any definition, Trump has another huge lead. With South Carolina being winner
take all at both the statewide and district level, this gives Trump a chance
for a huge delegate win. With a week to go, Donald Trump looks dominate.
Yesterday, we outlined the reasons why. Today we’ll jump back into our friend,
multi-candidate field dynamics in a more complicated way.
For many Republicans at the beginning of this race, Donald Trump seemed like a useful
foil. So Ted Cruz hugged him and didn’t care that much if right-wingers bonded
with him. In the end, Cruz figured, they would leave Trump for him and, if
anything, Trump’s candidacy would make Cruz seems like less of a threat to
others.
For the more establishment wing, Trump’s collapse was inevitable so he was not to
be worried about. Establishment Republicans ignored him and hoped. In the
meantime, Trump climbed and climbed. He became a blizzard, blanketing much of
the country. Establishment Republicans continued to ignore him and hope,
assuming that all snow melts. And, of course, all snow does melt but it takes
time and heat. The more of it there is, the longer it takes. We are now seeing
efforts to apply heat to Trump. Bush’s Superpac Right to Rise even used a similar metaphor in its attack: Trump
as a melting ice sculpture.
The problem for non-Trump Republicans is that opinion has a tendency to harden.
People who like Trump and bought in are much less likely to change their minds
now when presented with negative information. They’ve formed a positive
opinion.
Iowa is a perfect example. Yes, Trump was beaten, but in a caucus state with
relatively low turnout. Most important, Trump did not melt completely under the
heat of similar attacks, holding on to 85% of his polled supporters in Iowa.
More and nastier attacks might be planned for South Carolina, but if Trump
holds even 80% of his polled supporters, that would still give him 29% in a
five-way race, which seems like a near certain win. (It is technically a six-way
race technically, though Carson doesn’t stand a chance and therefore a vote for
Carson is a vote for Trump.) The amount of heat needed, combined with the time
left to melt all the snow, means the Establishment Republicans are not
likely to have a thaw that will allow them to recover. After what’s likely to
be another avalanche in South Carolina in seven days, they’ll have fewer than
four weeks to fight back in winner-take-all Ohio and Florida. They let the
Trump pile on before they tried to do anything.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
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About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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