Republican Caucus Nevada Preview
Odds: Trump 50% Cruz 25% Rubio 25%
Margin
Trump 40%
Rubio 25%
Cruz 23%
Kasich 7%
Carson 5%
Delegates
Trump 12
Rubio 8
Cruz 7
Kasich 2
Carson 1
Let us be candid. We have no idea what will happen in
Nevada.
First thing to remember: it is a caucus. Caucus turnout
plummets, particularly after Iowa. The normal rules do not apply. Therefore any
constellation of events is possible for the three viable campaigns competing
there.
Some polling informs our predictions, but the Nevada polling
on the Republican side was widely off in 2008. The other reason we think what
we think is because it’s what Jon Ralston thinks, at least in terms of Trump
winning. Jon Ralston, who is based out of Nevada, is one of the top ten political reporters in the country based
out He knows his state. We also think Rubio is getting hot at the
right time. The Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter-day Saints (Mormons), which
were crucial for Romney in 2008 and 2012, will help him beat the otherwise
passionate Cruz people.
This is utterly a hunch. When the contest is a primary and
we like the polling and it’s recent (there has been nothing post-South
Carolina) then we feel confident. Without that, we can’t be.
Should be exciting.
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