Why last night is so bad for the Republican Establishment and so good for Trump/Cruz.

The clear winner of yesterday is Donald Trump who looks on track to take a little more than a  third of the vote. John Kasich took second with tiny margins separating Cruz, Bush and Rubio. This would seem like good news for John Kasich and also for Jeb Bush. That, however, would be a fundamental misreading.

The reality is that the Republican “establishment lane” cannot sustain two candidates, let alone more than that. The assumption that the Establishment Republicans can rally to win the nomination late is based on a faulty understanding of the Republican math.

 We head next to South Carolina on February 20^th, which, even though it is not well known, is winner take all. The winner in each of seven districts gets all three delegates at stake in the district, and the winner statewide gets 26 delegates while no one else gets any. This is a big number.

South Carolina is not a hospitable environment for the moderate/establishment wing of the Republican Party. It is important to remember that Mitt Romney received only 28% of the vote in 2012. One establishment candidate in a three-way race with Trump and Cruz could possibly win with 35% of the vote. With more than one, and now likely three establishment candidates, it becomes almost impossible for one of them to win. While 40% of the Republican electorate there could vote for an establishment candidate, splitting that vote even a little seems to pave the way for a Cruz or Trump victory. 

Nevada comes next and provides the Establishment with a decent chance at success. But Nevada is also a straight proportional state. Thus, even a single moderate candidate who won 50% of the vote would only get 50% of the delegates. By contrast, a moderate in South Carolina could easily be blanked.

  What makes matters so much worse for the Republican Establishment is that early voting has already begun in the March 1^st state of Georgia. Texas, another March 1^st state, also will begin voting before South Carolina votes. Because those votes can’t be uncounted, early voting makes it harder to winnow the candidates to just one or even two establishment candidates.

 March 1^st has the potential to be an absolute bloodbath for the Republican establishment.   March 1^st sees Republican contests in 12 states. The rules are tailor made for the right. Three of the top four delegate states on March 1^st  (Texas, Georgia, Alabama) have the following rules:  In each district a candidate who receives 50%, wins all three delegates, and 50% statewide wins all the at-large delegates. If no candidate receives 50%, the highest vote getter takes two delegates and the second place finisher gets one. For the delegates determined statewide, a 20% threshold is required.

 While one establishment candidate could possibly, though not easily, reach the 20% threshold. In the districts, an establishment candidate might get some second places and maybe even a first in some of the richer or super Democratic districts in these states. But with more than one candidate, even these limited goals become difficult, if not impossible for the Establishment. 

These three states combine for 278 delegates, compared to the March 15^th establishment dream of winner-take-all Ohio and Florida that only yields 165 delegates.  

  The top two rule is also in place for two other March 1 contests, Tennessee and Arkansas, although the 15% statewide threshold in both states makes it more conceivable that four candidates could reach that for the at large delegates. What is even worse for the Establishment is that their three best March 1 states, Massachusetts, Virginia and Vermont, are all straight proportional. Thus even 40 percent to 30 percent wins could only net about four delegates each in Massachusetts (which has 39 delegates at stake) and Virginia (with 46 delegates). Vermont’s 16 delegates are not that consequential when divided proportionally. Thus getting blanked in two deep South Congressional districts hurts as much as losing by 10 points in Massachusetts.

Oklahoma, the last of the March 1 states, is proportional at large, and top three at the district level, assuming that each candidate reaches 15% in each district. The caucuses are a crapshoot. The bottom line is that without sufficient winnowing the right block could grab a huge delegate lead through March 1^st. 

If March 1^st goes as badly for the Establishment as it could with more than one candidate running, then the race will not be decided until June 7^th. What is more, for the race to go that long, an establishment candidate has to win the winner-take-all states of Ohio and Florida on March 15^th. But that is not a foregone conclusion. Lest we forget, Santorum, with 37.08% of the vote, came within a point of beating Romney in Ohio in 2012, with Gingrich taking 14.59%.

The Trump/Cruz split does leave open the specter of a brokered convention, but a strong right block makes it harder for an establishment candidate to win there too. Under the Democratic rules, a multi-candidate field as we are seeing now would almost certainly be headed to a brokered convention. But the Republican rules are frontloaded to get a fast winner, which ironically might help the type of candidate, Trump, the rules were designed to eliminate quickly.

 This does not even reckon with the hell storm Trump might unleash if he wins the most votes and is not the nominee.  This a very fraught situation for the Republican Establishment indeed.