So last night’s big news was of course the persistence of Donald Trump and the end of Jeb Bush. Although the battle for Bush’s supporters and particularly his money will be fierce, it is important to note that his $116,000,000 in Super Pac money amounted to basically nothing. It is also important to mention that his willingness to stay in the race longer than he should have is a dynamic that will continue to play out in the campaign – though not involving anyone named Bush.
Donald Trump is resilient and clever. To defeat him may require getting this down to a two- person race – and fast. While ignoring the Ben Carson comedy hour, there are four viable Republican candidates left.
Jeb Bush received some fool’s gold In New Hampshire by edging Marco Rubio by slightly less than 1300 votes. That was enough for him to press on to South Carolina. He could spin a tale that allowed him to march on. The fact that he made that decision helped Trump by having Rubio’s second place position in South Carolina look like a weak tie rather what could have been a solid finish had Bush’s support migrated to Rubio.
Jeb wanted to believe for an extra 10 days and thus here we sit. All remaining non-Trump candidates have a plausible story to tell themselves about how they can win and each tale is in fact plausible.
Let’s start with a story that isn’t plausible and this cannot be stressed enough. There is talk that it will be a challenge for any one candidate to win a majority of the delegates, period, and if that happens Trump will not be the nominee. But let’s be real. If Donald Trump wins the most votes and the most delegates and is not nominated due to some Republican establishment plot, Trump will make certain that “victory” will taste as bitter as defeat. What is clear based on the results so far is that absolutely no Republican for any office anywhere can win without a strong showing among the Trump voters. Thus attempts to deny him the nomination if he doesn’t get a majority of delegates should not considered a serious strategy.
With that out of the way, we can look at the next set of contests and the dilemmas they pose.
Nevada is Tuesday. It is a proportional caucus so unlikely to produce a big delegate lead for anyone. But the battle for second place in Nevada might matter just a tiny bit because anything might help going into the “SEC primary.“
On March 1st seven Southern states vote: Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee and Virginia. There are also four caucus states (Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota and Wyoming), and two Northern states (Massachusetts and Vermont.) Leaving aside the caucuses, which are much more complicated, the battle in the South is between Cruz and Rubio for second place finishes in certain Congressional districts outside of Texas, and whether Rubio can reach second in any Texas district or get to the 20% threshold there. Trump will win all these states, except Texas, where Cruz is likely to win.
Virginia is straight proportional and Oklahoma will split the district delegates evenly and its at large delegates proportionally. The Southern patchwork quilt of contests gives Cruz a huge advantage because of his obvious strength in Texas. A strong showing in his delegate-rich home state could keep him ahead of Rubio after Super Tuesday.
The battle for seconds is not glamorous and perhaps someone will find the formula to take down Trump. There are only nine days left to do that, however.
This is why Kasich’s plan is so sneaky and brilliant. He will focus on Massachusetts and Vermont and, to a lesser extent, Virginia because it is proportional, and sit back and watch as Cruz and Rubio struggle against Trump. Neither one may beat Trump anywhere and thus by the time the Michigan primary arrives on March 8th, a consensus could have emerged that only Kasich is alive against Trump.
March 15th looms large, as Rubio and Kasich face do-or-die tests. Losses for either one in their respective home states of Ohio or Florida could leave Cruz as the last man standing. For Kasich, a win in Ohio and a loss for Rubio in Florida sets him up as the last man standing, particularly if Cruz had already been damaged. Likewise for Rubio, if he were to win Florida while Kasich lost Ohio that would be fantastic for him. This dynamic has potentially lethal consequences, however, if all three campaigns work to undermine each other in their respective home states, thus aiding Trump.
The problem for all of these candidates is that if every one of them does manage to win their home states, than all four will march on. This drops Trump’s win number across the board. Even all four competing through March 15th presents problems as a four-way race in Illinois is just what the doctor ordered for Trump.
We already saw a taste of this In South Carolina. Trump’s win might have been inevitable, but his sweeping every one of the state’s 50 delegates was not. Trump won the 1st Congressional district and its delegates by only 3000 votes over Rubio. Kasich and Bush combined for slightly over 26,000 in that district. Bush pulling out sooner might have been enough to win the district for Rubio. Kasich’s continued presence and his 13% of the vote there was a problem too. It can continue like this for a long time. A few misplaced votes go to one candidate and then another, and no establishment figure gets the delegate needed to beat Trump.
Therefore, a decision to fight even an extra week more can have unintended consequences. Yet, the psychology of the race does not allow for anyone quitting before absolute necessity kicks in.
So long as all of these candidates believe they can win, and to some degree they can, than the process needed to block Trump is stalled and Trump marches on. In 22 days, 31 states will have voted.
Coming tomorrow: the Democratic race so far and a Nevada Republican caucus preview.
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