Monday, February 29, 2016

Democratic Super Tuesday Prediction by Delegate

States

Clinton: Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia
Sanders: Colorado, Minnesota, Vermont

Delegate Total

Clinton: 517
Sander: 349

Explanation

The dam broke on the Sanders Campaign in South Carolina. Although polling is a touch scant, there is little reason to believe the flood won’t continue to wash away the Sanders campaign throughout the South. Up north, Clinton has retaken the lead in Massachusetts. There are probably 20 delegates that will be decided by a handful of votes throughout the country, but an overall huge win for Hillary Clinton is coming, aided by her stellar performance with African Americans.

Full Delegate Allocation, State by State


ALABAMA
Total: 39-14 Clinton
At Large: 9-2 Clinton
PLEO: 5-2
CD 1: 4-1 Clinton
CD 2: 4-1 Clinton
CD 3: 4-1 Clinton
CD 4: 2-2 tie
CD 5: 2-2 tie
CD 6: 2-1 Clinton
CD 7: 7-2 Clinton

AMERICAN SAMOA
At Large: 4-2 Clinton

ARKANSAS
Total: 22-10 Clinton
At Large: 5-2 Clinton
PLEO: 3-1 Clinton
CD 1: 3-2 Clinton
CD 2: 4-2 Clinton
CD 3: 3-1 Clinton
CD 4: 4-2 Clinton

COLORADO
Total: 37-29 Sanders
At Large: 8-6 Sanders
PLEO: 5-4 Sanders
CD 1: 5-3 Sanders
CD 2: 4-3 Sanders
CD 3: 3-3 Tie
CD 4: 3-2 Sanders
CD 5: 3-2 Sanders
CD 6: 3-3 Tie
CD 7: 3-3 Tie

GEORGIA
Total: 70-32 Clinton
At Large: 16-6 Clinton
PLEO: 9-4 Clinton
CD 1: 4-1 Clinton
CD 2: 4-1 Clinton
CD 3: 3-1 Clinton
CD 4: 4-2 Clinton
CD 5: 5-2 Clinton
CD 6: 3-2 Clinton
CD 7: 3-1 Clinton
CD 8: 3-1 Clinton
CD 9: 2-2 Tie
CD 10: 3-1 Clinton
CD 11: 2-2 Tie
CD 12: 3-2 Clinton
CD 13: 4-2 Clinton
CD 14: 2-2 Tie

MASSACHUSETTS
Total: 50-41 Clinton
At Large: 11-9 Clinton
PLEO: 7-5 Clinton
CD 1: 3-3 tie
CD 2: 3-3 tie
CD 3: 3-3 tie
CD 4: 3-3 tie
CD 5: 4-3 Clinton
CD 6: 4-3 Clinton
CD 7: 4-3 Clinton
CD 8: 4-3 Clinton
CD 9: 4-3 Clinton

MINNESOTA
Total: 44-33 Sanders
AT Large: 10-7 Sanders
PLEO: 6-4 Sanders
CD 1: 3-2 Sanders
CD 2: 3-3 Tie
CD 3: 4-3 Sanders
CD 4: 4-3 Sanders
CD 5: 5-4 Sanders
CD 6: 3-2 Sanders
CD 7: 3-2 Sanders
CD 8: 3-3 Tie

OKLAHOMA
Total: 22-17 Clinton
At Large: 4-4 Tie
PLEO: 3-2 Clinton
CD 1: 3-2 Clinton
CD 2: 3-2 Clinton
CD 3: 2-2 Tie
CD 4: 3-2 Clinton
CD 5: 3-3 Tie

TENNESSEE
Total: 41-26 Clinton
At Large: 9-5 Clinton
PLEO: 6-3 Clinton
CD 1: 2-2 tie
CD 2: 2-2 tie
CD 3: 3-2 Clinton
CD 4: 2-2 tie
CD 5: 4-2 Clinton
CD 6: 2-2 tie
CD 7: 3-2 Clinton
CD 8: 3-2 Clinton
CD 9: 5-2 Clinton

TEXAS
Total: 140-82
At Large: 31-17 Clinton
PLEO: 16-8 Clinton
SD 1: 2-1 Clinton
SD 2: 3-1 Clinton
SD 3: 2-1 Clinton
SD 4: 3-1 Clinton
SD 5: 3-2 Clinton
SD 6: 3-1 Clinton
SD 7: 3-1 Clinton
SD 8: 3-2 Clinton
SD 9: 3-1 Clinton
SD 10: 4-2 Clinton
SD 11: 3-1 Clinton
SD 12: 2-2 Tie
SD 13: 6-2 Clinton
SD 14: 5-5 Tie
SD 15: 4-2 Clinton
SD 16: 3-2 Clinton
SD 17: 3-2 Clinton
SD 18: 3-1 Clinton
SD 19: 3-2 Clinton
SD 20: 3-2 Clinton
SD 21: 3-2 Clinton
SD 22: 2-2 Tie
SD 23: 6-2 Clinton
SD 24: 4-2 Clinton
SD 25: 4-2 Clinton
SD 26: 4-2 Clinton
SD 27: 3-1 Clinton
SD 28: 1-1 Tie
SD 29: 3-1 Clinton
SD 30: 2-1 Clinton
SD 31: 1-1 Tie

VIRGINIA
Total: 65-30 Clinton
At Large: 14-7 Clinton
PLEO: 8-4 Clinton
CD 1: 3-2 Clinton
CD 2: 3-2 Clinton
CD 3: 6-2 Clinton
CD 4: 4-2 Clinton
CD 5: 3-2 Clinton
CD 6: 2-2 Tie
CD 7: 3-2 Clinton
CD 8: 5-3 Clinton
CD 9: 2-1 Clinton
CD 10: 3-3 Tie
CD 11: 4-3 Clinton

VERMONT
Total: 14-2 Sanders
At Large: 3-0 Sanders
PLE0: 2-0
CD: 9-2 Sanders

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Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.

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