New Hampshire Preview.

New Hampshire Preview.

Democrats

Odds Sanders 99% Clinton 1%

Margin 56% Sanders 44% Clinton

Delegates: Sanders 14 Clinton 10

Explanation:

                There has been much talk about how Vermont is the neighboring state to New Hampshire. While this certainly didn’t hurt Sanders, the key point to understanding this race is that when you go back to the 2008 primary Clinton only got 39% of the vote in New Hampshire. The reason she won is because John Edwards, also running on economic populism, took votes away from Obama. We know this because in later states those voters migrated to Obama.  We might think of the 2016 race as traveling somewhat the same path as the Obama and Clinton race in 2008 with Clinton running much better this time amongst African Americans. We are still looking to seeing if this trend is going to break at some point. It did not really in Iowa. [Sanders does much better with young voters added since 2008, but they will likely not be enough to make up the gap among repeat voters.]  With this understanding, Sanders looks on track to win by 12%. As we discussed in an earlier post, New Hampshire has two districts, and Sanders would need to hit 56.25% across both districts to gain a 15-9 delegate advantage. We think he will be successful in hitting 56.25% in the 2^nd, winning that 8 delegate district 5-3, but unsuccessful in the 1^st where Hilary Clinton’s entire 2008 margin was built.   So we predict a split of 1^st district delegates 4-4. The key place to watch would be the City of Manchester.  If Hillary can win there she will earn an even delegate split in the 1^st.

Republicans

Odds Trump 90% others 10%

Margin Trump 30% Kasich 16% Cruz 15% Bush 13% Rubio 12% Christie 7% Fiorina 4% Carson 2%

Explanation:

                Donald Trump looks exceptionally likely to win. Beyond that 2^nd through 5^th are incredibly jumbled with any outcome appearing possible. Polls are all over the place, and none of our favorite pollsters have weighed in during recent days.  Because the polling is conflicted we are going with bases and trends.  Kasich from the Huntsman base will grab second.  Cruz with the smaller, but existing Christian base will take third. The ballot for 4^th will be incredibly close, but Jeb Bush has an up arrow and Rubio seems to have a down arrow and that can make all the difference. As you can see the margins are very close.  Christie is looking like 6^th, but even he has signs of life. This is a hard call, but this is where we think things will land.