We are waiting for the absolute last
bit of data before making a call about New Hampshire. The more you know, the better your call. With that being said, watching the
multi-candidate field dynamics as we come right up to the end is too juicy not
to provoke comment. Let’s start with Jeb Bush, who began his day attacking Donald Trump. At first glance, this might
seem odd because these two candidates are not really competing for the same
voters. But Bush’s strategy begins to make sense when you realize that at least
1 in 3 New Hampshire Republicans probably despise Donald Trump. If these voters want to send a message
against Donald Trump, the feud Bush is fueling, complete with tweets back and
forth and interview comments, has the effect of making himself a magnet for
anti-Trump feeling. So having them both in the news actually helps both
campaigns.
Chris Christie keeps driving
the message of Rubio’s weakness. This is
to keep himself prominent in the coverage, as he remains at the heart of the
post-debate narrative, but also because a weak showing by Marco Rubio is
important to all of the Governors. A
strong showing by Rubio threatened to eliminate all three Governors. With a
weaker showing from Rubio the race can continue because the search for the savior
from Cruz and Trump goes on. Meanwhile,
Rubio is a bit too damaged to go on the attack, and Cruz and Kasich are each
playing in a very specific lane, attempting to compete for a narrow slice of
voters. Cruz is targeting Santorum and
Gingrich voters from 2012, with perhaps a sprinkling of long time Ron Paul
supporters. Kasich is aiming at the 2012 Huntsman voters,
plus a small slice of the New Hampshire Republican establishment. Trump has a lane all his own. So the three candidates without a lane found
themselves resorting to strong approaches to building last minute brands. Rubio is doubling down on his being right in
his attacks on Obama. Bush is focused on
his attacks on Trump, and Christie piling on against Marco Rubio. These dynamics have been fascinating and will
make calling the race exceptionally difficult.
The Scorecard
The Scorecard is a political strategy and analysis blog. Our hope is to provide information and insight that can be found nowhere else into how and why things are happening in American politics. Unlike many political pundits, we will tell you who we think is going to win as an election approaches; we will tell you why; and we will give you a sense of our level of confidence. Ours is a holistic approach, one that takes in as many numbers as possible but is also willing to look past the numbers if need be. When we turn out to have been wrong, we will let you know. When we are right, we’ll let you know that too.
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About Me
Author Jason Paul is a longtime political operative who got his start as an intern in 2002. He has been a political forecaster for almost as long. He won the 2006 Swing State Project election prediction contest and has won two other local contests. He had the pulse of Obama-Clinton race in 2008 and has been as good as anyone at delegate math in the 2016 race. He looks forwards to providing quality coverage for the remainder of the 2016 race.
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