“Little Marco, Lying Ted and the Con Man”

This has been a week to remember in the Republican race. The charges and counter charges, The name-calling and the accusations have reached a fever pitch. And yet the multi-candidate field dynamics that have benefited Trump so greatly continue almost unabated. Trump’s lead has for the most part led the other candidates this week to stop sniping against each other, which has helped the cause somewhat. But the reality is that rather than having a stop-Trump strategy, every campaign continues to have a how-I- win strategy. As will be better explained in our final Republican preview tomorrow, the Republican rules are such that doing too well against a potential foe can have the effect of giving support to Trump as well as to that candidate. In most cases, the way the math works is that unless a candidate can get past Trump substantially, extra votes don’t gain the candidate much. But if a rival misses one of the percentage thresholds for delegates, his percentage of the vote will be split proportionally among the remaining candidates. Other candidates will benefit from the fallout but so does Trump.

                 Another interesting dynamic this week has been the effect Marco Rubio’s attack on Trump will have on his standing. The media is pushing the idea that this is all upside for Rubio as he is now the center of attention. That might be right. Another school of thought, however, is that Rubio has lowered himself to Trump’s level. Thus, it is possible that even as Rubio takes from Trump he sends them to Cruz, He also runs the risk of pushing undecided voters from himself to Cruz. He also could lose some votes to John Kasich, who is pretty much alone in the civility lane. Without any real polling in the wake of the dustups, we are left mostly flying blind.

A final note: much has been made of the large number of endorsements that Rubio has been getting. It is worth pointing out just how disdained some of the endorsers are. Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee endorsed Rubio today. In 2014, Alexander, as a sitting senator, had two primary challengers, who held him to under 50% of the Republican primary vote. Although the media tends to focus on tea-party challengers only when they win, it should be remembered that even when they don’t win their voters still exist in the Republican primary electorate going forward. Primary voters who opposed Alexander in 2014 are unlikely to be impressed by his endorsement two years later. The dynamic of a more right leaning GOP primary electorate has been missed even as it continues to define this race. 

Coming tomorrow: Democratic and Republican previews tomorrow down to the delegate and every allocation.