How we think about the Republican side of the New Hampshire Primary.

The lead story in politics on the R side is clearly Marco Rubio’s struggles in last night’s Republican debate. We have been watching the polls incredibly closely. Even before the debate, we were already starting to see some signs of the fading of Marcomentum. We can’t be sure that trend will continue. During primaries, polls have to be watched particularly closely. Things move so quickly that the day the poll was taken can be important. Because of this, getting more and more recent polling can help. So we will hold off making a prediction until some time tomorrow.

One way we predict election results is to ground our thinking in past elections result and returns, and use them as the basis for everything we think.  Yes, things change so it would be incorrect to just assume that what happened in the past will happen in the future. However, it is better to start with the past and build on it rather than ignore the past altogether.

So looking at the 2012 Republican primary can be instructive. In 2012, the Republican establishment candidates took 56% of the vote with Romney getting 39% and Hunstman getting 17%. The two right-wing Christians got 18% with 9% each for Gingrich and Santorum. The stick -them-in-your-eye anti-establishment vote went to Paul at 23%. This accounts for about 98% of the vote with others taking 2%.

But the establishment vote in 2012 was likely inflated. Romney was a very strong establishment candidate against whom very little money was spent. In addition, the lack of a Democratic primary meant that unaffiliateds likely voted in the Republican primary and went for the more establishment candidates. Neither of those factors is in play this year.

As a result we predict that 50% of the vote will go to the non-establishment trio of Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Ted Cruz, while the other 50% will go to the other five candidates, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina. Carving up the pie in these ways makes it easier to make specific predictions, which will come tomorrow.